Predictions / Football / Iceland. 1. Deild / Grindavik vs Leiknir R.

Prediction Audit: Grindavik vs Leiknir R. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Grindavik Grindavik
Jul 29, 2026 - 19:15
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Leiknir R. Leiknir R.

The model missed the final outcome (Grindavik win 1–0).

The model had projected Leiknir R. at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Leiknir R. Grindavik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Grindavik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Grindavik -6.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Grindavik 33.8% 40.3% -6.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.7% +2.9 pp Aligned
Leiknir R. 36.6% 33.0% +3.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Grindavik's win probability at 40.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 6.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Grindavik win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Grindavik. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Leiknir R.; match finished Grindavik

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leiknir R. by 6.6 percentage points (43.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 29, 2026 · 20:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Grindavik 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Leiknir R. 36.6%
    • xG · Grindavik 1.27 — Leiknir R. 1.33
  2. Jul 29, 2026 · 18:47 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Grindavik 2.33 · Draw 3.52 · Leiknir R. 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Grindavik 40.3% · Draw 26.7% · Leiknir R. 33.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Grindavik 2.33 · Draw 3.52 · Leiknir R. 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Grindavik 40.3% · Draw 26.7% · Leiknir R. 33.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 29, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Grindavik win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455356

Closing Odds 2.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Grindavik win · Grindavik 1–0 Leiknir R.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: Grindavik vs Leiknir R.
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-29 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Grindavik 1.27 — Leiknir R. 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9