Predictions / Football / Iceland. 1. Deild / Leiknir R. vs Völsungur

Prediction Audit: Leiknir R. vs Völsungur Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Leiknir R. Leiknir R.
Jul 04, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.35
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 39%
Völsungur Völsungur

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).

The model had projected Leiknir R. at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Leiknir R. Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Leiknir R. higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Leiknir R. -22.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Leiknir R. 37.5% 60.3% -22.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.8% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Völsungur 32.9% 18.9% +13.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Leiknir R.'s win probability at 60.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 22.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Leiknir R.; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leiknir R. by 22.7 percentage points (60.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 04, 2026 · 21:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Leiknir R. 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Völsungur 32.9%
    • xG · Leiknir R. 1.35 — Völsungur 1.25
  2. Jul 04, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Leiknir R. 1.54 · Draw 4.47 · Völsungur 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Leiknir R. 60.3% · Draw 20.8% · Völsungur 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 04, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Leiknir R. 1.54 · Draw 4.47 · Völsungur 4.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Leiknir R. 60.3% · Draw 20.8% · Völsungur 18.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 04, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (23 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 04:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1963493

Closing Odds 1.54
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Leiknir R. 3–3 Völsungur
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1. Deild
  • Fixture: Leiknir R. vs Völsungur
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-04 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Leiknir R. 1.35 — Völsungur 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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1. Deild 1. Deild — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Afturelding 22 14 3 5 45
2 Throttur Reykjavik 22 13 4 5 43
3 Fylkir 22 13 1 8 40
4 HK Kopavogur 22 12 2 8 38
5 Njardvik 22 12 2 8 38
6 Leiknir R. 22 8 4 10 28
7 IR Reykjavik 22 8 4 10 28
8 Grotta 22 8 3 11 27
9 Vestri 22 8 3 11 27
10 Völsungur 22 7 5 10 26
11 Grindavik 22 5 10 7 25
12 Ægir 22 2 3 17 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Afturelding 22 65 33 +32 45
2 HK Kopavogur 22 52 40 +12 38
3 Throttur Reykjavik 22 50 25 +25 43
4 Fylkir 22 49 36 +13 40
5 IR Reykjavik 22 40 46 -6 28
6 Njardvik 22 38 29 +9 38
7 Grotta 22 36 43 -7 27
8 Leiknir R. 22 34 33 +1 28
9 Völsungur 22 32 44 -12 26
10 Vestri 22 30 43 -13 27
11 Grindavik 22 25 35 -10 25
12 Ægir 22 25 69 -44 9