AI correctly predicted the Flora Tallinn win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 21.3% | 18.8% | +2.5 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 27.9% | 20.3% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Flora Tallinn | 50.8% | 60.9% | -10.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Flora Tallinn's win probability at 60.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.8%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Flora Tallinn win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Flora Tallinn than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Flora Tallinn attacking xG significantly stronger (1.62 vs 0.98)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Flora Tallinn higher (60.9% vs model 50.8%, 10.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Flora Tallinn win 2–3).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Nõmme United 21.3% · Draw 27.9% · Flora Tallinn 50.8%
- xG · Nõmme United 0.98 — Flora Tallinn 1.62
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Nõmme United 4.93 · Draw 4.57 · Flora Tallinn 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Nõmme United 18.8% · Draw 20.3% · Flora Tallinn 60.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Nõmme United 4.93 · Draw 4.57 · Flora Tallinn 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Nõmme United 18.8% · Draw 20.3% · Flora Tallinn 60.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Flora Tallinn win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Meistriliiga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 55 |
| 3 | Paide | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 50 |
| 5 | Tammeka | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 44 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 11 | 2 | 16 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 34 |
| 8 | Kuressaare | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 29 |
| 9 | Nõmme United | 29 | 9 | 1 | 19 | 28 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 29 | 81 | 21 | +60 | 72 |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 29 | 59 | 39 | +20 | 55 |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 29 | 52 | 27 | +25 | 50 |
| 4 | Paide | 29 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 51 |
| 5 | Nõmme United | 29 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 28 |
| 6 | Laagri | 29 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 |
| 7 | Vaprus | 29 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 34 |
| 8 | Tammeka | 29 | 37 | 47 | -10 | 44 |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 29 | 31 | 49 | -18 | 29 |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 29 | 22 | 65 | -43 | 19 |
