Predictions / Football / Estonia. Meistriliiga / Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn

Prediction Audit: Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Paide Paide
Sep 06, 2026 - 11:30
0 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 58%
FC Levadia Tallinn FC Levadia Tallinn

The model missed the final outcome (FC Levadia Tallinn win 0–2).

The model had projected Paide at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Paide FC Levadia Tallinn ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices FC Levadia Tallinn higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FC Levadia Tallinn -27.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Paide 35.2% 16.3% +18.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.7% +9.0 pp Model Higher
FC Levadia Tallinn 35.2% 63.0% -27.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FC Levadia Tallinn's win probability at 63.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 27.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Levadia Tallinn win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Paide; match finished FC Levadia Tallinn

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Paide by 27.8 percentage points (63.0% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Paide 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · FC Levadia Tallinn 35.2%
    • xG · Paide 1.30 — FC Levadia Tallinn 1.30
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Paide 5.67 · Draw 4.48 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Paide 16.3% · Draw 20.7% · FC Levadia Tallinn 63.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Paide 5.67 · Draw 4.48 · FC Levadia Tallinn 1.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Paide 16.3% · Draw 20.7% · FC Levadia Tallinn 63.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Levadia Tallinn win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 13/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6326467

Closing Odds 1.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Levadia Tallinn win · Paide 0–2 FC Levadia Tallinn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Meistriliiga
  • Fixture: Paide vs FC Levadia Tallinn
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Paide 1.3 — FC Levadia Tallinn 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Paide
  • Model: 35.2% · Implied: 16.3% · Probability edge: +18.9 pts · Est. EV: +7.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Meistriliiga Meistriliiga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 22 6 1 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 18 1 10 55
3 Paide 29 15 6 8 51
4 Kalju Nomme 29 15 5 9 50
5 Tammeka 29 14 2 13 44
6 Laagri 29 11 2 16 35
7 Vaprus 29 10 4 15 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 29
9 Nõmme United 29 9 1 19 28
10 Trans Narva 29 5 4 20 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FC Levadia Tallinn 29 81 21 +60 72
2 Flora Tallinn 29 59 39 +20 55
3 Kalju Nomme 29 52 27 +25 50
4 Paide 29 48 36 +12 51
5 Nõmme United 29 47 68 -21 28
6 Laagri 29 40 47 -7 35
7 Vaprus 29 39 57 -18 34
8 Tammeka 29 37 47 -10 44
9 Kuressaare 29 31 49 -18 29
10 Trans Narva 29 22 65 -43 19