Predictions / Football / USA. MLS Next Pro / San Jose Earthquakes II vs LA Galaxy II

Prediction Audit: San Jose Earthquakes II vs LA Galaxy II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Jose Earthquakes II San Jose Earthquakes II
Sep 10, 2026 - 20:00
1 1.43
3 1.17
xG Accuracy: 54%
LA Galaxy II LA Galaxy II

The model missed the final outcome (LA Galaxy II win 1–3).

The model had projected San Jose Earthquakes II at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 San Jose Earthquakes II LA Galaxy II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
San Jose Earthquakes II 41.4% 43.5% -2.1 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 24.1% +5.3 pp Model Higher
LA Galaxy II 29.2% 32.4% -3.2 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.1%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was LA Galaxy II win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on San Jose Earthquakes II by 5.3 percentage points (36.1% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 10, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · San Jose Earthquakes II 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · LA Galaxy II 29.3%
    • xG · San Jose Earthquakes II 1.43 — LA Galaxy II 1.17
  2. Sep 10, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · San Jose Earthquakes II 2.05 · Draw 3.70 · LA Galaxy II 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · San Jose Earthquakes II 43.5% · Draw 24.1% · LA Galaxy II 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 10, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · San Jose Earthquakes II 2.05 · Draw 3.70 · LA Galaxy II 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · San Jose Earthquakes II 43.5% · Draw 24.1% · LA Galaxy II 32.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 10, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result LA Galaxy II win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1455430

Closing Odds 3.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result LA Galaxy II win · San Jose Earthquakes II 1–3 LA Galaxy II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: MLS Next Pro
  • Fixture: San Jose Earthquakes II vs LA Galaxy II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-10 20:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): San Jose Earthquakes II 1.43 — LA Galaxy II 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.4% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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MLS Next Pro MLS Next Pro — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Columbus Crew II 28 17 0 11 48
1 Crown Legacy 26 19 0 7 54
1 Austin II 26 19 0 7 59
2 New England II 28 16 0 12 48
2 Chattanooga 26 17 0 9 50
2 Portland Timbers II 26 18 0 8 54
3 New York City II 28 16 0 12 47
3 Atlanta United II 26 14 0 12 45
3 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 18 0 8 51
4 Connecticut FC 28 16 0 12 46
4 LA Galaxy II 26 17 0 9 50
5 New York RB II 28 15 0 13 46
5 St. Louis City II 26 14 0 12 43
6 Bethlehem Steel 28 14 0 14 43
6 Los Angeles II 26 13 0 13 42
7 Toronto II 28 13 0 15 39
7 Tacoma Defiance 26 13 0 13 39
8 FC Cincinnati II 28 7 0 21 20
8 North Texas 26 13 0 13 38
9 Orlando City II 26 14 0 12 41
9 Minnesota United II 25 12 0 13 37
10 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 12 0 14 36
11 Real Monarchs 25 11 0 14 29
12 Chicago Fire II 26 13 0 13 39
12 Whitecaps II 26 10 0 16 27
13 Huntsville City 26 12 0 14 38
13 Swope Park Rangers 26 6 0 20 20
14 Carolina Core 26 9 0 17 28
14 Colorado Rapids II 26 5 0 21 18
16 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 4 0 22 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Crown Legacy 26 63 36 +27 54
2 Connecticut FC 28 59 52 +7 46
3 New York RB II 28 58 48 +10 46
4 Atlanta United II 26 57 40 +17 45
5 LA Galaxy II 26 54 34 +20 50
6 Austin II 26 51 21 +30 59
7 Houston Dynamo FC II 26 51 30 +21 51
8 Chattanooga 26 51 38 +13 50
9 New York City II 28 50 44 +6 47
10 Orlando City II 26 50 51 -1 41
11 Columbus Crew II 28 49 43 +6 48
12 Chicago Fire II 26 49 45 +4 39
13 Toronto II 28 48 56 -8 39
14 New England II 28 47 42 +5 48
15 San Jose Earthquakes II 26 45 36 +9 36
16 Los Angeles II 26 43 44 -1 42
17 Huntsville City 26 43 45 -2 38
18 St. Louis City II 26 41 37 +4 43
19 North Texas 26 41 39 +2 38
20 Tacoma Defiance 26 39 40 -1 39
21 Whitecaps II 26 38 55 -17 27
22 Bethlehem Steel 28 37 40 -3 43
23 Carolina Core 26 37 50 -13 28
24 Real Monarchs 25 36 50 -14 29
25 Portland Timbers II 26 35 27 +8 54
26 Minnesota United II 25 35 36 -1 37
27 FC Cincinnati II 28 32 62 -30 20
28 Swope Park Rangers 26 32 68 -36 20
29 Fort Lauderdale CF 26 27 63 -36 15
30 Colorado Rapids II 26 26 50 -24 18