Prediction Audit: Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Curico Unido

Aug 23, 2026 - 23:30

2 1.28

0 1.32

xG Accuracy: 57%

Union San Felipe

The model missed the final outcome (Curico Unido win 2–0).

The model had projected Union San Felipe at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Union San Felipe Curico Unido ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Curico Unido	34.2%	49.5%	-15.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.6%	+3.0 pp	Aligned
Union San Felipe	36.1%	23.9%	+12.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Curico Unido's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Curico Unido win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Curico Unido than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Union San Felipe; match finished Curico Unido

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Union San Felipe by 15.2 percentage points (51.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Curico Unido 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Union San Felipe 36.1%
- xG · Curico Unido 1.28 — Union San Felipe 1.32
Aug 23, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Curico Unido 1.85 · Draw 3.44 · Union San Felipe 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Curico Unido 49.5% · Draw 26.6% · Union San Felipe 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Curico Unido 1.85 · Draw 3.44 · Union San Felipe 3.83
- Implied 1X2 · Curico Unido 49.5% · Draw 26.6% · Union San Felipe 23.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 23, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Curico Unido win · 2–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (15 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 8/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4373346

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Curico Unido win · Curico Unido 2–0 Union San Felipe

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primera B
Fixture: Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe
Kickoff: 2026-08-23 23:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
xG (showing): Curico Unido 1.28 — Union San Felipe 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Santiago Wanderers	24	12	8	4	44
2	Cobreloa	24	11	9	4	42
3	San Luis	24	11	8	5	41
4	Magallanes	25	11	7	7	40
5	Antofagasta	25	10	8	7	38
6	Recoleta	25	10	8	7	38
7	San Marcos de Arica	25	9	9	7	36
8	Union Espanola	25	10	6	9	36
9	D. Puerto Montt	25	10	4	11	34
10	Deportes Temuco	25	8	8	9	32
11	Deportes Copiapo	24	8	7	9	31
12	Deportes Iquique	25	6	10	9	28
13	Curico Unido	25	6	9	10	27
14	Deportes Santa Cruz	25	4	10	11	22
15	Union San Felipe	23	5	7	11	22
16	Rangers de Talca	25	4	6	15	18

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Antofagasta	25	42	26	+16	38
2	Cobreloa	24	42	27	+15	42
3	Magallanes	25	41	38	+3	40
4	Santiago Wanderers	24	40	25	+15	44
5	Deportes Temuco	25	40	35	+5	32
6	San Luis	24	38	29	+9	41
7	Recoleta	25	36	33	+3	38
8	Deportes Iquique	25	33	30	+3	28
9	Deportes Copiapo	24	33	38	-5	31
10	Union Espanola	25	32	32	0	36
11	San Marcos de Arica	25	31	23	+8	36
12	D. Puerto Montt	25	26	31	-5	34
13	Deportes Santa Cruz	25	26	38	-12	22
14	Rangers de Talca	25	23	40	-17	18
15	Curico Unido	25	22	38	-16	27
16	Union San Felipe	23	15	37	-22	22