Predictions / Football / Chile. Primera B / San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe

Prediction Audit: San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

San Marcos de Arica San Marcos de Arica
Aug 13, 2026 - 00:30
0 1.35
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Union San Felipe Union San Felipe

The model missed the final outcome (Union San Felipe win 0–1).

The model had projected San Marcos de Arica at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 San Marcos de Arica Union San Felipe ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned San Marcos de Arica; match finished Union San Felipe

Market lesson

The full-time result was Union San Felipe win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 13, 2026 · 00:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · San Marcos de Arica 1.35 — Union San Felipe 1.25
  2. Aug 13, 2026 · 00:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Union San Felipe win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3151427

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union San Felipe win · San Marcos de Arica 0–1 Union San Felipe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: San Marcos de Arica vs Union San Felipe
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-13 00:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): San Marcos de Arica 1.35 — Union San Felipe 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 10, 2026 (UTC)

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Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Cobreloa 26 13 9 4 48
2 San Luis 26 13 8 5 47
3 Santiago Wanderers 26 12 8 6 44
4 Magallanes 26 12 7 7 43
5 Antofagasta 26 11 8 7 41
6 Recoleta 26 11 8 7 41
7 San Marcos de Arica 26 10 9 7 39
8 Deportes Copiapo 26 10 7 9 37
9 Union Espanola 26 10 6 10 36
10 D. Puerto Montt 26 10 4 12 34
11 Deportes Temuco 26 8 8 10 32
12 Deportes Iquique 26 7 10 9 31
13 Curico Unido 26 6 9 11 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 26 4 10 12 22
15 Union San Felipe 26 5 7 14 22
16 Rangers de Talca 26 4 6 16 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Antofagasta 26 44 26 +18 41
2 Cobreloa 26 44 27 +17 48
3 Magallanes 26 42 38 +4 43
4 Santiago Wanderers 26 41 28 +13 44
5 San Luis 26 41 29 +12 47
6 Deportes Temuco 26 40 36 +4 32
7 Deportes Copiapo 26 40 39 +1 37
8 Recoleta 26 38 34 +4 41
9 Deportes Iquique 26 35 30 +5 31
10 San Marcos de Arica 26 33 24 +9 39
11 Union Espanola 26 32 34 -2 36
12 Deportes Santa Cruz 26 27 40 -13 22
13 D. Puerto Montt 26 26 34 -8 34
14 Rangers de Talca 26 23 42 -19 18
15 Curico Unido 26 22 39 -17 27
16 Union San Felipe 26 16 44 -28 22
Primera B Chile. Primera B Predictions