Predictions / Football / Chile. Primera B / D. Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola

Prediction Audit: D. Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

D. Puerto Montt D. Puerto Montt
Aug 11, 2026 - 23:00
0 1.32
1 1.28
xG Accuracy: 64%
Union Espanola Union Espanola

The model missed the final outcome (Union Espanola win 0–1).

The model had projected D. Puerto Montt at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 D. Puerto Montt Union Espanola ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices D. Puerto Montt higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: D. Puerto Montt -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
D. Puerto Montt 36.1% 42.6% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.3% +0.3 pp Aligned
Union Espanola 34.2% 28.1% +6.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates D. Puerto Montt's win probability at 42.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Union Espanola win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on D. Puerto Montt. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned D. Puerto Montt; match finished Union Espanola

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on D. Puerto Montt by 6.5 percentage points (42.6% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 11, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · D. Puerto Montt 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Union Espanola 34.2%
    • xG · D. Puerto Montt 1.32 — Union Espanola 1.28
  2. Aug 11, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · D. Puerto Montt 2.15 · Draw 3.12 · Union Espanola 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · D. Puerto Montt 42.6% · Draw 29.3% · Union Espanola 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 11, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · D. Puerto Montt 2.15 · Draw 3.12 · Union Espanola 3.26
    • Implied 1X2 · D. Puerto Montt 42.6% · Draw 29.3% · Union Espanola 28.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 11, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union Espanola win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 02:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3021346

Closing Odds 2.15
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Espanola win · D. Puerto Montt 0–1 Union Espanola
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primera B
  • Fixture: D. Puerto Montt vs Union Espanola
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-11 23:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): D. Puerto Montt 1.32 — Union Espanola 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Primera B Primera B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Santiago Wanderers 24 12 8 4 44
2 Cobreloa 24 11 9 4 42
3 San Luis 24 11 8 5 41
4 Magallanes 25 11 7 7 40
5 Antofagasta 25 10 8 7 38
6 Recoleta 25 10 8 7 38
7 San Marcos de Arica 25 9 9 7 36
8 Union Espanola 25 10 6 9 36
9 D. Puerto Montt 25 10 4 11 34
10 Deportes Temuco 25 8 8 9 32
11 Deportes Copiapo 24 8 7 9 31
12 Deportes Iquique 25 6 10 9 28
13 Curico Unido 25 6 9 10 27
14 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 4 10 11 22
15 Union San Felipe 23 5 7 11 22
16 Rangers de Talca 25 4 6 15 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Antofagasta 25 42 26 +16 38
2 Cobreloa 24 42 27 +15 42
3 Magallanes 25 41 38 +3 40
4 Santiago Wanderers 24 40 25 +15 44
5 Deportes Temuco 25 40 35 +5 32
6 San Luis 24 38 29 +9 41
7 Recoleta 25 36 33 +3 38
8 Deportes Iquique 25 33 30 +3 28
9 Deportes Copiapo 24 33 38 -5 31
10 Union Espanola 25 32 32 0 36
11 San Marcos de Arica 25 31 23 +8 36
12 D. Puerto Montt 25 26 31 -5 34
13 Deportes Santa Cruz 25 26 38 -12 22
14 Rangers de Talca 25 23 40 -17 18
15 Curico Unido 25 22 38 -16 27
16 Union San Felipe 23 15 37 -22 22
Primera B Chile. Primera B Predictions