Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Västra Frölunda vs Åstorp

Prediction Audit: Västra Frölunda vs Åstorp Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda
Sep 27, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
Åstorp Åstorp

The model missed the final outcome (Västra Frölunda win 2–0).

The model had projected Åstorp at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Åstorp Västra Frölunda ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Västra Frölunda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Västra Frölunda -6.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Västra Frölunda 33.3% 40.0% -6.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.0% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Åstorp 37.1% 36.0% +1.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Västra Frölunda's win probability at 40.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Västra Frölunda win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Västra Frölunda. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Åstorp; match finished Västra Frölunda
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Åstorp by 6.7 percentage points (43.8% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Åstorp 37.0%
    • xG · Västra Frölunda 1.26 — Åstorp 1.34
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Västra Frölunda 2.22 · Draw 3.71 · Åstorp 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 40.0% · Draw 24.0% · Åstorp 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Västra Frölunda 2.22 · Draw 3.71 · Åstorp 2.47
    • Implied 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 40.0% · Draw 24.0% · Åstorp 36.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Västra Frölunda win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10084988

Closing Odds 2.22
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Västra Frölunda win · Västra Frölunda 2–0 Åstorp
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Västra Frölunda vs Åstorp
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Västra Frölunda 1.26 — Åstorp 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +49.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
6 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
7 Västra Frölunda 22 9 6 7 33
8 Qviding FIF 22 9 4 9 31
9 Onsala 22 7 6 9 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 22 7 5 10 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
4 Västra Frölunda 22 42 38 +4 33
5 Qviding FIF 22 42 42 0 31
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 22 31 35 -4 27
13 Åstorp 22 28 36 -8 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions