Prediction Audit: Qviding FIF vs Jonsered Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Qviding FIF

Sep 06, 2026 - 10:00

1 1.37

0 1.23

xG Accuracy: 64%

Jonsered

AI correctly predicted the Qviding FIF win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Qviding FIF Qviding FIF ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Qviding FIF	38.5%	49.6%	-11.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.8%	+6.8 pp	Model Higher
Jonsered	31.9%	27.6%	+4.3 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Qviding FIF's win probability at 49.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 11.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Qviding FIF win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Qviding FIF than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Qviding FIF higher (49.6% vs model 38.5%, 11.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Qviding FIF win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Qviding FIF 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Jonsered 31.9%
- xG · Qviding FIF 1.37 — Jonsered 1.23
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Qviding FIF 1.79 · Draw 3.90 · Jonsered 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · Qviding FIF 49.6% · Draw 22.8% · Jonsered 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Qviding FIF 1.79 · Draw 3.90 · Jonsered 3.21
- Implied 1X2 · Qviding FIF 49.6% · Draw 22.8% · Jonsered 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Qviding FIF win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:06 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322636

Closing Odds 1.79

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Qviding FIF win · Qviding FIF 1–0 Jonsered

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Fixture: Qviding FIF vs Jonsered
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 10:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Qviding FIF 1.37 — Jonsered 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	23	16	3	4	51
2	Dalstorps	23	12	7	4	43
3	Hestrafor	23	12	5	6	41
4	Jonsered	23	11	6	6	39
5	Lindome	23	10	4	9	34
6	Böljan	23	9	7	7	34
7	Västra Frölunda	22	9	6	7	33
8	Qviding FIF	22	9	4	9	31
9	Onsala	22	7	6	9	27
10	Kongahälla	23	7	6	10	27
11	Åstorp	22	7	5	10	26
12	Torslanda	23	6	7	10	25
13	Galtabacks	23	5	5	13	20
14	Astrio	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Hestrafor	23	48	38	+10	41
2	Dalstorps	23	44	25	+19	43
3	Lindome	23	42	37	+5	34
4	Västra Frölunda	22	42	38	+4	33
5	Qviding FIF	22	42	42	0	31
6	Landvetter IS	23	41	19	+22	51
7	Jonsered	23	39	37	+2	39
8	Torslanda	23	37	42	-5	25
9	Böljan	23	36	31	+5	34
10	Galtabacks	23	35	42	-7	20
11	Kongahälla	23	35	43	-8	27
12	Onsala	22	31	35	-4	27
13	Åstorp	22	28	36	-8	26
14	Astrio	23	21	56	-35	9