Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Västra Frölunda vs Landvetter IS

Prediction Audit: Västra Frölunda vs Landvetter IS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda
Aug 23, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 64%
Landvetter IS Landvetter IS

AI correctly predicted the Västra Frölunda win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Landvetter IS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Landvetter IS -13.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Västra Frölunda 37.5% 28.9% +8.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Aligned
Landvetter IS 32.9% 46.5% -13.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Landvetter IS's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Västra Frölunda win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Landvetter IS than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Västra Frölunda higher (51.2% vs model 37.5%, 13.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Västra Frölunda win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 23, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Landvetter IS 32.9%
    • xG · Västra Frölunda 1.35 — Landvetter IS 1.25
  2. Aug 23, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Västra Frölunda 3.08 · Draw 3.61 · Landvetter IS 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 28.9% · Draw 24.6% · Landvetter IS 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 23, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Västra Frölunda 3.08 · Draw 3.61 · Landvetter IS 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Västra Frölunda 28.9% · Draw 24.6% · Landvetter IS 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 23, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Västra Frölunda win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 17, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4359940

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Västra Frölunda win · Västra Frölunda 1–0 Landvetter IS
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Västra Frölunda vs Landvetter IS
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-23 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Västra Frölunda 1.35 — Landvetter IS 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Västra Frölunda 23 10 6 7 36
6 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
7 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
8 Qviding FIF 23 10 4 9 34
9 Onsala 23 7 6 10 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 23 7 5 11 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Västra Frölunda 23 44 38 +6 36
4 Qviding FIF 23 44 43 +1 34
5 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 23 32 37 -5 27
13 Åstorp 23 28 38 -10 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions