Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Åstorp vs Kongahälla

Prediction Audit: Åstorp vs Kongahälla Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Åstorp Åstorp
Aug 22, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 61%
Kongahälla Kongahälla

AI correctly predicted the Åstorp win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Åstorp Åstorp ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Åstorp higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Åstorp -15.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Åstorp 40.4% 55.9% -15.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 22.9% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Kongahälla 30.1% 21.2% +9.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Åstorp's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 15.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Åstorp win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Åstorp than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Åstorp higher (55.9% vs model 40.4%, 15.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Åstorp win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Åstorp 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Kongahälla 30.1%
    • xG · Åstorp 1.41 — Kongahälla 1.19
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Åstorp 1.61 · Draw 3.92 · Kongahälla 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Åstorp 55.9% · Draw 22.9% · Kongahälla 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Åstorp 1.61 · Draw 3.92 · Kongahälla 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Åstorp 55.9% · Draw 22.9% · Kongahälla 21.2%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Åstorp win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4217124

Closing Odds 1.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Åstorp win · Åstorp 2–0 Kongahälla
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Åstorp vs Kongahälla
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Åstorp 1.41 — Kongahälla 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
6 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
7 Västra Frölunda 22 9 6 7 33
8 Qviding FIF 22 9 4 9 31
9 Onsala 22 7 6 9 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 22 7 5 10 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
4 Västra Frölunda 22 42 38 +4 33
5 Qviding FIF 22 42 42 0 31
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 22 31 35 -4 27
13 Åstorp 22 28 36 -8 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions