Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Böljan vs Åstorp

Prediction Audit: Böljan vs Åstorp Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Böljan Böljan
Aug 14, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 64%
Åstorp Åstorp

AI correctly predicted the Åstorp win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Åstorp Åstorp ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Böljan higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Böljan -6.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Böljan 31.5% 38.3% -6.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.6% +4.9 pp Aligned
Åstorp 39.0% 37.0% +1.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Böljan's win probability at 38.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.5%, a difference of 6.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Åstorp win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Böljan. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Åstorp higher (45.8% vs model 39.0%, 6.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Åstorp win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Böljan 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Åstorp 39.0%
    • xG · Böljan 1.22 — Åstorp 1.38
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Böljan 2.32 · Draw 3.61 · Åstorp 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Böljan 38.3% · Draw 24.6% · Åstorp 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Böljan 2.32 · Draw 3.61 · Åstorp 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Böljan 38.3% · Draw 24.6% · Åstorp 37.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Åstorp win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3229530

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Åstorp win · Böljan 0–1 Åstorp
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Böljan vs Åstorp
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Böljan 1.22 — Åstorp 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
6 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
7 Västra Frölunda 22 9 6 7 33
8 Qviding FIF 22 9 4 9 31
9 Onsala 22 7 6 9 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 22 7 5 10 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
4 Västra Frölunda 22 42 38 +4 33
5 Qviding FIF 22 42 42 0 31
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 22 31 35 -4 27
13 Åstorp 22 28 36 -8 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions