Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland / Böljan vs Västra Frölunda

Prediction Audit: Böljan vs Västra Frölunda Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Böljan Böljan
Jul 31, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Västra Frölunda Västra Frölunda

The model missed the final outcome (Böljan win 2–1).

The model had projected Västra Frölunda at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Västra Frölunda Böljan ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Västra Frölunda higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Västra Frölunda -10.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Böljan 34.2% 30.8% +3.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 22.7% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Västra Frölunda 36.1% 46.5% -10.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Västra Frölunda's win probability at 46.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 10.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Böljan win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Västra Frölunda than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Västra Frölunda; match finished Böljan

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Västra Frölunda by 10.4 percentage points (46.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Böljan 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Västra Frölunda 36.1%
    • xG · Böljan 1.28 — Västra Frölunda 1.32
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Böljan 2.88 · Draw 3.91 · Västra Frölunda 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Böljan 30.8% · Draw 22.7% · Västra Frölunda 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Böljan 2.88 · Draw 3.91 · Västra Frölunda 1.91
    • Implied 1X2 · Böljan 30.8% · Draw 22.7% · Västra Frölunda 46.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Böljan win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1673617

Closing Odds 1.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Böljan win · Böljan 2–1 Västra Frölunda
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
  • Fixture: Böljan vs Västra Frölunda
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Böljan 1.28 — Västra Frölunda 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Landvetter IS 23 16 3 4 51
2 Dalstorps 23 12 7 4 43
3 Hestrafor 23 12 5 6 41
4 Jonsered 23 11 6 6 39
5 Lindome 23 10 4 9 34
6 Böljan 23 9 7 7 34
7 Västra Frölunda 22 9 6 7 33
8 Qviding FIF 22 9 4 9 31
9 Onsala 22 7 6 9 27
10 Kongahälla 23 7 6 10 27
11 Åstorp 22 7 5 10 26
12 Torslanda 23 6 7 10 25
13 Galtabacks 23 5 5 13 20
14 Astrio 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Hestrafor 23 48 38 +10 41
2 Dalstorps 23 44 25 +19 43
3 Lindome 23 42 37 +5 34
4 Västra Frölunda 22 42 38 +4 33
5 Qviding FIF 22 42 42 0 31
6 Landvetter IS 23 41 19 +22 51
7 Jonsered 23 39 37 +2 39
8 Torslanda 23 37 42 -5 25
9 Böljan 23 36 31 +5 34
10 Galtabacks 23 35 42 -7 20
11 Kongahälla 23 35 43 -8 27
12 Onsala 22 31 35 -4 27
13 Åstorp 22 28 36 -8 26
14 Astrio 23 21 56 -35 9
Division 2 - Västra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions