Prediction Audit: Jonsered vs Qviding FIF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jonsered

Jun 13, 2026 - 14:00

2 1.27

2 1.33

xG Accuracy: 68%

Qviding FIF

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Qviding FIF at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Qviding FIF Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
1X2: model leaned Qviding FIF; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 13, 2026 · 19:53 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Jonsered 1.27 — Qviding FIF 1.33
Jun 13, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1537439

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Jonsered 2–2 Qviding FIF

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Division 2 - Västra Götaland
Fixture: Jonsered vs Qviding FIF
Kickoff: 2026-06-13 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Jonsered 1.27 — Qviding FIF 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Västra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Landvetter IS	25	18	3	4	57
2	Dalstorps	25	14	7	4	49
3	Jonsered	25	12	6	7	42
4	Hestrafor	24	12	5	7	41
5	Västra Frölunda	24	10	7	7	37
6	Böljan	25	10	7	8	37
7	Lindome	25	11	4	10	37
8	Qviding FIF	25	11	4	10	37
9	Onsala	25	9	6	10	33
10	Torslanda	24	7	7	10	28
11	Kongahälla	25	7	6	12	27
12	Åstorp	25	7	5	13	26
13	Galtabacks	24	5	5	14	20
14	Astrio	25	2	4	19	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dalstorps	25	50	28	+22	49
2	Hestrafor	24	48	39	+9	41
3	Lindome	25	47	43	+4	37
4	Qviding FIF	25	46	45	+1	37
5	Västra Frölunda	24	45	39	+6	37
6	Landvetter IS	25	43	19	+24	57
7	Jonsered	25	42	40	+2	42
8	Böljan	25	39	33	+6	37
9	Torslanda	24	39	42	-3	28
10	Galtabacks	24	38	46	-8	20
11	Kongahälla	25	36	47	-11	27
12	Onsala	25	35	38	-3	33
13	Åstorp	25	30	43	-13	26
14	Astrio	25	22	58	-36	10