Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Nacka Iliria vs Smedby

Prediction Audit: Nacka Iliria vs Smedby Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nacka Iliria Nacka Iliria
Sep 05, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.29
1 1.31
xG Accuracy: 85%
Smedby Smedby

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Smedby at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Smedby Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Nacka Iliria higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Nacka Iliria -9.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Nacka Iliria 34.7% 44.0% -9.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.7% +5.0 pp Aligned
Smedby 35.6% 31.3% +4.3 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Nacka Iliria's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Nacka Iliria. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Smedby; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Smedby by 9.3 percentage points (44.9% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Nacka Iliria 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Smedby 35.6%
    • xG · Nacka Iliria 1.29 — Smedby 1.31
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Nacka Iliria 2.02 · Draw 3.60 · Smedby 2.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacka Iliria 44.0% · Draw 24.7% · Smedby 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Nacka Iliria 2.02 · Draw 3.60 · Smedby 2.84
    • Implied 1X2 · Nacka Iliria 44.0% · Draw 24.7% · Smedby 31.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 01:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6124502

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Nacka Iliria 1–1 Smedby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Nacka Iliria vs Smedby
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Nacka Iliria 1.29 — Smedby 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 22 13 4 5 43
2 Farsta 22 13 3 6 42
3 Forward 22 13 3 6 42
4 Nyköping 23 13 3 7 42
5 Haninge 22 12 3 7 39
6 Rågsved 23 10 6 7 36
7 Smedby 22 10 5 7 35
8 Fittja 23 10 3 10 33
9 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
10 Karlslund 22 7 6 9 27
11 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
12 Syrianska FC 23 6 5 12 23
13 Lindo FF 22 5 2 15 17
14 Eker Örebro 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 22 54 42 +12 39
2 Sleipner 22 48 35 +13 43
3 Farsta 22 47 25 +22 42
4 Forward 22 42 26 +16 42
5 Rågsved 23 42 36 +6 36
6 Smedby 22 39 30 +9 35
7 Nyköping 23 38 22 +16 42
8 Fittja 23 36 36 0 33
9 Syrianska FC 23 33 50 -17 23
10 Karlslund 22 31 35 -4 27
11 Lindo FF 22 27 43 -16 17
12 Eker Örebro 22 26 65 -39 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions