Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Rågsved vs Haninge

Prediction Audit: Rågsved vs Haninge Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rågsved Rågsved
Sep 04, 2026 - 18:00
2 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 75%
Haninge Haninge

The model missed the final outcome (Rågsved win 2–1).

The model had projected Haninge at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Haninge Rågsved ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Haninge higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Haninge -7.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rågsved 34.2% 32.6% +1.6 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 23.6% +6.0 pp Model Higher
Haninge 36.1% 43.8% -7.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Haninge's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Rågsved win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Haninge. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Haninge; match finished Rågsved

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Haninge by 7.7 percentage points (43.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rågsved 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Haninge 36.1%
    • xG · Rågsved 1.28 — Haninge 1.32
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rågsved 2.75 · Draw 3.80 · Haninge 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Rågsved 32.6% · Draw 23.6% · Haninge 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Rågsved 2.75 · Draw 3.80 · Haninge 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Rågsved 32.6% · Draw 23.6% · Haninge 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rågsved win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5923233

Closing Odds 2.05
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rågsved win · Rågsved 2–1 Haninge
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Rågsved vs Haninge
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Rågsved 1.28 — Haninge 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farsta 24 14 4 6 46
2 Sleipner 23 13 5 5 44
3 Forward 23 13 4 6 43
4 Nyköping 24 13 4 7 43
5 Haninge 23 13 3 7 42
6 Smedby 24 10 6 8 36
7 Rågsved 23 10 6 7 36
8 Fittja 24 10 3 11 33
9 Karlslund 23 7 7 9 28
10 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
11 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
12 Syrianska FC 23 6 5 12 23
13 Lindo FF 23 6 2 15 20
14 Eker Örebro 23 4 3 16 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 23 56 43 +13 42
2 Farsta 24 49 26 +23 46
3 Sleipner 23 48 35 +13 44
4 Forward 23 44 28 +16 43
5 Rågsved 23 42 36 +6 36
6 Smedby 24 41 33 +8 36
7 Nyköping 24 39 23 +16 43
8 Fittja 24 37 38 -1 33
9 Karlslund 23 33 37 -4 28
10 Syrianska FC 23 33 50 -17 23
11 Lindo FF 23 30 45 -15 20
12 Eker Örebro 23 28 68 -40 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions