Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Forward vs Syrianska FC

Prediction Audit: Forward vs Syrianska FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Forward Forward
Aug 16, 2026 - 11:00
5 1.33
0 1.27
xG Accuracy: 26%
Syrianska FC Syrianska FC

AI correctly predicted the Forward win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Forward Forward ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Forward higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Forward -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Forward 36.6% 62.5% -25.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 20.5% +9.1 pp Model Higher
Syrianska FC 33.8% 17.0% +16.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Forward's win probability at 62.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Forward win 5–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Forward higher (62.5% vs model 36.6%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Forward win 5–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Forward 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Syrianska FC 33.8%
    • xG · Forward 1.33 — Syrianska FC 1.27
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Forward 1.42 · Draw 4.32 · Syrianska FC 5.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Forward 62.5% · Draw 20.5% · Syrianska FC 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Forward 1.42 · Draw 4.32 · Syrianska FC 5.23
    • Implied 1X2 · Forward 62.5% · Draw 20.5% · Syrianska FC 17.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Forward win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3601373

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Forward win · Forward 5–0 Syrianska FC
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Forward vs Syrianska FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.8%
  • xG (showing): Forward 1.33 — Syrianska FC 1.27 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 05, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farsta 24 14 4 6 46
2 Sleipner 24 13 6 5 45
3 Forward 24 13 5 6 44
4 Nyköping 24 13 4 7 43
5 Haninge 23 13 3 7 42
6 Rågsved 24 11 6 7 39
7 Smedby 24 10 6 8 36
8 Fittja 24 10 3 11 33
9 Karlslund 23 7 7 9 28
10 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
11 Syrianska FC 24 7 5 12 26
12 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
13 Lindo FF 24 6 2 16 20
14 Eker Örebro 24 4 3 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 23 56 43 +13 42
2 Farsta 24 49 26 +23 46
3 Sleipner 24 49 36 +13 45
4 Forward 24 45 29 +16 44
5 Rågsved 24 45 37 +8 39
6 Smedby 24 41 33 +8 36
7 Nyköping 24 39 23 +16 43
8 Syrianska FC 24 38 52 -14 26
9 Fittja 24 37 38 -1 33
10 Karlslund 23 33 37 -4 28
11 Lindo FF 24 32 50 -18 20
12 Eker Örebro 24 29 71 -42 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions