Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Fittja vs Rågsved

Prediction Audit: Fittja vs Rågsved Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fittja Fittja
Aug 16, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Rågsved Rågsved

The model missed the final outcome (Fittja win 1–0).

The model had projected Rågsved at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rågsved Fittja ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fittja 32.9% 36.9% -4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.3% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Rågsved 37.5% 38.8% -1.3 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.3%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Fittja win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Rågsved; match finished Fittja

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rågsved by 5.3 percentage points (32.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fittja 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Rågsved 37.6%
    • xG · Fittja 1.25 — Rågsved 1.35
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fittja 2.41 · Draw 3.66 · Rågsved 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Fittja 36.9% · Draw 24.3% · Rågsved 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fittja 2.41 · Draw 3.66 · Rågsved 2.29
    • Implied 1X2 · Fittja 36.9% · Draw 24.3% · Rågsved 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fittja win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3602393

Closing Odds 3.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fittja win · Fittja 1–0 Rågsved
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Fittja vs Rågsved
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Fittja 1.25 — Rågsved 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 23, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Division 2 - Södra Svealand Matches Track Fittja Next Match Prediction Track Rågsved Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 21 13 4 4 43
2 Farsta 22 13 3 6 42
3 Forward 22 13 3 6 42
4 Nyköping 22 12 3 7 39
5 Haninge 21 11 3 7 36
6 Smedby 22 10 5 7 35
7 Rågsved 22 10 5 7 35
8 Fittja 22 10 3 9 33
9 Karlslund 22 7 6 9 27
10 Örebro Syrianska 22 8 2 12 26
11 Nacka Iliria 22 6 3 13 21
12 Syrianska FC 21 5 5 11 20
13 Lindo FF 22 5 2 15 17
14 Eker Örebro 21 4 3 14 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 21 49 38 +11 36
2 Farsta 22 47 25 +22 42
3 Sleipner 21 47 32 +15 43
4 Forward 22 42 26 +16 42
5 Rågsved 22 40 34 +6 35
6 Smedby 22 39 30 +9 35
7 Nyköping 22 37 22 +15 39
8 Fittja 22 35 34 +1 33
9 Karlslund 22 31 35 -4 27
10 Syrianska FC 21 30 48 -18 20
11 Lindo FF 22 27 43 -16 17
12 Örebro Syrianska 22 23 25 -2 26
13 Nacka Iliria 22 23 40 -17 21
14 Eker Örebro 21 22 60 -38 15
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions