Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Rågsved vs Forward

Prediction Audit: Rågsved vs Forward Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rågsved Rågsved
Jun 28, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.42
2 1.18
xG Accuracy: 71%
Forward Forward

The model missed the final outcome (Forward win 1–2).

The model had projected Rågsved at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rågsved Forward ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rågsved; match finished Forward

Market lesson

The full-time result was Forward win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 28, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Rågsved 1.42 — Forward 1.18
  2. Jun 28, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Forward win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3176593

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Forward win · Rågsved 1–2 Forward
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Rågsved vs Forward
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-28 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Rågsved 1.42 — Forward 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 09, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Division 2 - Södra Svealand Matches Track Rågsved Next Match Prediction Track Forward Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farsta 24 14 4 6 46
2 Sleipner 24 13 6 5 45
3 Forward 24 13 5 6 44
4 Nyköping 24 13 4 7 43
5 Haninge 23 13 3 7 42
6 Rågsved 24 11 6 7 39
7 Smedby 24 10 6 8 36
8 Fittja 24 10 3 11 33
9 Karlslund 23 7 7 9 28
10 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
11 Syrianska FC 24 7 5 12 26
12 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
13 Lindo FF 24 6 2 16 20
14 Eker Örebro 24 4 3 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 23 56 43 +13 42
2 Farsta 24 49 26 +23 46
3 Sleipner 24 49 36 +13 45
4 Forward 24 45 29 +16 44
5 Rågsved 24 45 37 +8 39
6 Smedby 24 41 33 +8 36
7 Nyköping 24 39 23 +16 43
8 Syrianska FC 24 38 52 -14 26
9 Fittja 24 37 38 -1 33
10 Karlslund 23 33 37 -4 28
11 Lindo FF 24 32 50 -18 20
12 Eker Örebro 24 29 71 -42 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions