Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Syrianska FC vs Rågsved

Prediction Audit: Syrianska FC vs Rågsved Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Syrianska FC Syrianska FC
Jun 22, 2026 - 17:30
2 1.21
2 1.39
xG Accuracy: 68%
Rågsved Rågsved

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Rågsved at 42.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rågsved Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Rågsved higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Rågsved -8.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Syrianska FC 29.5% 25.3% +4.2 pp Aligned
Draw 27.8% 23.6% +4.2 pp Aligned
Rågsved 42.8% 51.1% -8.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Rågsved's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.8%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Rågsved. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rågsved; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rågsved by 8.3 percentage points (51.1% vs model 42.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 22, 2026 · 19:27 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Syrianska FC 29.5% · Draw 27.8% · Rågsved 42.7%
    • xG · Syrianska FC 1.21 — Rågsved 1.39
  2. Jun 22, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Syrianska FC 3.51 · Draw 3.77 · Rågsved 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Syrianska FC 25.3% · Draw 23.6% · Rågsved 51.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 22, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Syrianska FC 3.51 · Draw 3.77 · Rågsved 1.74
    • Implied 1X2 · Syrianska FC 25.3% · Draw 23.6% · Rågsved 51.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 58/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 28, 2026 · 22:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5883001

Closing Odds 1.74
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Syrianska FC 2–2 Rågsved
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Syrianska FC vs Rågsved
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-22 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.0% · Draw 35.0% · Away 30.0%
  • xG (showing): Syrianska FC 1.21 — Rågsved 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Division 2 - Södra Svealand Matches Track Syrianska FC Next Match Prediction Track Rågsved Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Syrianska FC & Rågsved!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 22 13 4 5 43
2 Farsta 22 13 3 6 42
3 Forward 22 13 3 6 42
4 Nyköping 23 13 3 7 42
5 Haninge 22 12 3 7 39
6 Rågsved 23 10 6 7 36
7 Smedby 22 10 5 7 35
8 Fittja 23 10 3 10 33
9 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
10 Karlslund 22 7 6 9 27
11 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
12 Syrianska FC 23 6 5 12 23
13 Lindo FF 22 5 2 15 17
14 Eker Örebro 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 22 54 42 +12 39
2 Sleipner 22 48 35 +13 43
3 Farsta 22 47 25 +22 42
4 Forward 22 42 26 +16 42
5 Rågsved 23 42 36 +6 36
6 Smedby 22 39 30 +9 35
7 Nyköping 23 38 22 +16 42
8 Fittja 23 36 36 0 33
9 Syrianska FC 23 33 50 -17 23
10 Karlslund 22 31 35 -4 27
11 Lindo FF 22 27 43 -16 17
12 Eker Örebro 22 26 65 -39 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions