Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Sleipner vs Rågsved

Prediction Audit: Sleipner vs Rågsved Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sleipner Sleipner
Jun 13, 2026 - 11:00
4 1.25
4 1.35
xG Accuracy: 23%
Rågsved Rågsved

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 4–4).

The model had projected Rågsved at 35.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rågsved Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sleipner higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sleipner -5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sleipner 35.3% 41.2% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.9% 26.6% +2.3 pp Aligned
Rågsved 35.8% 32.2% +3.6 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sleipner's win probability at 41.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.3%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 4–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sleipner. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rågsved; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rågsved by 5.8 percentage points (41.6% vs model 35.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 13, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sleipner 35.3% · Draw 28.9% · Rågsved 35.8%
    • xG · Sleipner 1.25 — Rågsved 1.35
  2. Jun 13, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sleipner 2.16 · Draw 3.34 · Rågsved 2.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Sleipner 41.2% · Draw 26.6% · Rågsved 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 13, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sleipner 2.16 · Draw 3.34 · Rågsved 2.76
    • Implied 1X2 · Sleipner 41.2% · Draw 26.6% · Rågsved 32.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 13, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 4–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 24/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 23:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1657068

Closing Odds 2.16
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sleipner 4–4 Rågsved
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Sleipner vs Rågsved
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-13 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Sleipner 1.25 — Rågsved 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sleipner 22 13 4 5 43
2 Farsta 22 13 3 6 42
3 Forward 22 13 3 6 42
4 Nyköping 23 13 3 7 42
5 Haninge 22 12 3 7 39
6 Rågsved 23 10 6 7 36
7 Smedby 22 10 5 7 35
8 Fittja 23 10 3 10 33
9 Örebro Syrianska 23 8 3 12 27
10 Karlslund 22 7 6 9 27
11 Nacka Iliria 23 7 3 13 24
12 Syrianska FC 23 6 5 12 23
13 Lindo FF 22 5 2 15 17
14 Eker Örebro 22 4 3 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 22 54 42 +12 39
2 Sleipner 22 48 35 +13 43
3 Farsta 22 47 25 +22 42
4 Forward 22 42 26 +16 42
5 Rågsved 23 42 36 +6 36
6 Smedby 22 39 30 +9 35
7 Nyköping 23 38 22 +16 42
8 Fittja 23 36 36 0 33
9 Syrianska FC 23 33 50 -17 23
10 Karlslund 22 31 35 -4 27
11 Lindo FF 22 27 43 -16 17
12 Eker Örebro 22 26 65 -39 15
13 Örebro Syrianska 23 25 27 -2 27
14 Nacka Iliria 23 25 41 -16 24
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions