Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand / Forward vs Karlslund

Prediction Audit: Forward vs Karlslund Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Forward Forward
Jun 17, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.30
2 1.30
xG Accuracy: 68%
Karlslund Karlslund

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Forward at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Forward Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 17, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Forward 1.30 — Karlslund 1.30
  2. Jun 17, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 11:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2185889

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Forward 2–2 Karlslund
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Svealand
  • Fixture: Forward vs Karlslund
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-17 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Forward 1.3 — Karlslund 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Svealand Division 2 - Södra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Farsta 25 15 4 6 49
2 Sleipner 24 13 6 5 45
3 Forward 24 13 5 6 44
4 Nyköping 24 13 4 7 43
5 Haninge 25 13 4 8 43
6 Rågsved 25 12 6 7 42
7 Smedby 25 10 6 9 36
8 Fittja 24 10 3 11 33
9 Karlslund 24 8 7 9 31
10 Örebro Syrianska 25 9 4 12 31
11 Nacka Iliria 25 8 3 14 27
12 Syrianska FC 25 7 5 13 26
13 Lindo FF 25 6 2 17 20
14 Eker Örebro 24 4 3 17 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Haninge 25 62 50 +12 43
2 Farsta 25 51 27 +24 49
3 Sleipner 24 49 36 +13 45
4 Rågsved 25 49 40 +9 42
5 Forward 24 45 29 +16 44
6 Smedby 25 44 37 +7 36
7 Nyköping 24 39 23 +16 43
8 Syrianska FC 25 39 54 -15 26
9 Fittja 24 37 38 -1 33
10 Karlslund 24 37 38 -1 31
11 Lindo FF 25 33 52 -19 20
12 Nacka Iliria 25 31 49 -18 27
13 Örebro Syrianska 25 29 30 -1 31
14 Eker Örebro 24 29 71 -42 15
Division 2 - Södra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Svealand Predictions