Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Sölvesborg vs Lilla Torg

Prediction Audit: Sölvesborg vs Lilla Torg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sölvesborg Sölvesborg
Oct 10, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.37
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 85%
⚽
Lilla Torg

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sölvesborg at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sölvesborg Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Oct 05, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Sölvesborg 1.37 — Lilla Torg 1.23
  2. Oct 10, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Oct 05, 2026 · 01:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-13188192

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sölvesborg 1–1 Lilla Torg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Sölvesborg vs Lilla Torg
  • Kickoff: 2026-10-10 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Sölvesborg 1.37 — Lilla Torg 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 24 19 3 2 60
2 IFK Trelleborg 24 15 5 4 50
3 Oskarshamns AIK 24 14 3 7 45
4 Nosaby 25 12 6 7 42
5 Linero 25 13 2 10 41
6 Berga 24 12 4 8 40
7 Växjö Norra 25 9 8 8 35
8 Österlen 24 8 6 10 30
9 Lilla Torg 25 6 11 8 29
10 Sölvesborg 25 9 2 14 29
11 Staffanstorp United 24 6 8 10 26
12 Torns 24 7 0 17 21
13 Räppe 25 4 6 15 18
14 Karlshamn 24 4 2 18 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 24 63 21 +42 60
2 Oskarshamns AIK 24 60 30 +30 45
3 Berga 24 52 36 +16 40
4 IFK Trelleborg 24 51 23 +28 50
5 Linero 25 48 42 +6 41
6 Nosaby 25 47 40 +7 42
7 Österlen 24 37 41 -4 30
8 Staffanstorp United 24 37 41 -4 26
9 Sölvesborg 25 36 47 -11 29
10 Lilla Torg 25 34 42 -8 29
11 Växjö Norra 25 32 36 -4 35
12 Torns 24 31 66 -35 21
13 Räppe 25 26 55 -29 18
14 Karlshamn 24 26 60 -34 14
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions