Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Berga vs Lilla Torg

Prediction Audit: Berga vs Lilla Torg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Berga Berga
Sep 06, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.23
3 1.37
xG Accuracy: 60%
⚽
Lilla Torg

AI correctly predicted the Lilla Torg win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Lilla Torg Lilla Torg ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Berga higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Berga -23.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Berga 31.9% 55.6% -23.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.2% +6.4 pp Model Higher
Lilla Torg 38.5% 21.3% +17.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Berga's win probability at 55.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.9%, a difference of 23.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Lilla Torg win 1–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Lilla Torg higher (62.1% vs model 38.5%, 23.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Lilla Torg win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Berga 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Lilla Torg 38.5%
    • xG · Berga 1.23 — Lilla Torg 1.37
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Berga 1.60 · Draw 3.84 · Lilla Torg 4.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Berga 55.6% · Draw 23.2% · Lilla Torg 21.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 12:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Berga 1.60 · Draw 3.84 · Lilla Torg 4.18
    • Implied 1X2 · Berga 55.6% · Draw 23.2% · Lilla Torg 21.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lilla Torg win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 06:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6353704

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lilla Torg win · Berga 1–3 Lilla Torg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Berga vs Lilla Torg
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.5%
  • xG (showing): Berga 1.23 — Lilla Torg 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 38.0% · Probability edge: +13.8 pts · Est. EV: +29.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
6 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
5 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions