Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Sölvesborg vs Nosaby

Prediction Audit: Sölvesborg vs Nosaby Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sölvesborg Sölvesborg
Aug 14, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.36
2 1.24
xG Accuracy: 74%
Nosaby Nosaby

The model missed the final outcome (Nosaby win 1–2).

The model had projected Sölvesborg at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sölvesborg Nosaby ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sölvesborg 38.0% 39.9% -1.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.1% +4.4 pp Aligned
Nosaby 32.4% 35.0% -2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Nosaby win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Nosaby

Market lesson

The full-time result was Nosaby win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sölvesborg 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Nosaby 32.4%
    • xG · Sölvesborg 1.36 — Nosaby 1.24
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 2.22 · Draw 3.52 · Nosaby 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 39.9% · Draw 25.1% · Nosaby 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sölvesborg 2.22 · Draw 3.52 · Nosaby 2.53
    • Implied 1X2 · Sölvesborg 39.9% · Draw 25.1% · Nosaby 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Nosaby win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228700

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nosaby win · Sölvesborg 1–2 Nosaby
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Sölvesborg vs Nosaby
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Sölvesborg 1.36 — Nosaby 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Linero 23 12 2 9 38
5 Berga 23 11 4 8 37
6 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 23 8 6 9 30
9 Sölvesborg 23 9 1 13 28
10 Lilla Torg 23 6 10 7 28
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 23 7 0 16 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 23 49 36 +13 37
5 Linero 23 44 39 +5 38
6 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
7 Österlen 23 37 38 -1 30
8 Sölvesborg 23 35 42 -7 28
9 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Lilla Torg 23 31 38 -7 28
12 Torns 23 31 64 -33 21
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions