Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Österlen vs Sölvesborg

Prediction Audit: Österlen vs Sölvesborg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Österlen Österlen
Aug 07, 2026 - 16:30
4 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 43%
Sölvesborg Sölvesborg

The model missed the final outcome (Österlen win 4–1).

The model had projected Sölvesborg at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sölvesborg Österlen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Österlen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Österlen -23.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Österlen 33.3% 57.0% -23.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 22.1% +7.5 pp Model Higher
Sölvesborg 37.1% 20.9% +16.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Österlen's win probability at 57.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 23.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Österlen win 4–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Sölvesborg; match finished Österlen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sölvesborg by 23.7 percentage points (60.8% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Österlen 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Sölvesborg 37.0%
    • xG · Österlen 1.26 — Sölvesborg 1.34
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Österlen 1.56 · Draw 4.02 · Sölvesborg 4.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Österlen 57.0% · Draw 22.1% · Sölvesborg 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Österlen 1.56 · Draw 4.02 · Sölvesborg 4.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Österlen 57.0% · Draw 22.1% · Sölvesborg 20.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Österlen win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 07:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2710247

Closing Odds 1.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Österlen win · Österlen 4–1 Sölvesborg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Österlen vs Sölvesborg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Österlen 1.26 — Sölvesborg 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 18 3 2 57
2 IFK Trelleborg 23 14 5 4 47
3 Oskarshamns AIK 23 13 3 7 42
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Nosaby 23 10 6 7 36
6 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
7 Växjö Norra 23 9 8 6 35
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 22 8 1 13 25
11 Staffanstorp United 23 5 8 10 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 23 4 6 13 18
14 Karlshamn 23 3 2 18 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 23 61 20 +41 57
2 Oskarshamns AIK 23 58 30 +28 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 23 49 23 +26 47
4 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
5 Nosaby 23 42 37 +5 36
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 23 33 41 -8 23
9 Sölvesborg 22 32 40 -8 25
10 Växjö Norra 23 31 31 0 35
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 23 25 51 -26 18
14 Karlshamn 23 24 60 -36 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions