Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Österlen vs Sölvesborg

Prediction Audit: Österlen vs Sölvesborg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Österlen Österlen
Aug 07, 2026 - 16:30
4 1.26
1 1.34
xG Accuracy: 43%
Sölvesborg Sölvesborg

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade Not available

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sölvesborg Österlen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  2. FT Full-time result Österlen win · 4–1

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: No prediction record
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 07:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2710247

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Österlen win · Österlen 4–1 Sölvesborg
Prediction No prediction record
Decision Grade Not assessed

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Österlen vs Sölvesborg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Österlen 1.26 — Sölvesborg 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Cautious / Wait

Outcome: —

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

November 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 26 20 3 3 63
2 IFK Trelleborg 26 16 5 5 53
3 Oskarshamns AIK 26 14 3 9 45
4 Nosaby 26 13 6 7 45
5 Linero 26 14 2 10 44
6 Berga 26 13 4 9 43
7 Växjö Norra 26 10 8 8 38
8 Österlen 26 9 6 11 33
9 Staffanstorp United 26 8 8 10 32
10 Lilla Torg 26 7 11 8 32
11 Sölvesborg 26 10 2 14 32
12 Torns 26 7 0 19 21
13 Räppe 26 4 6 16 18
14 Karlshamn 26 4 2 20 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 26 68 23 +45 63
2 Oskarshamns AIK 26 62 37 +25 45
3 Berga 26 55 39 +16 43
4 IFK Trelleborg 26 54 27 +27 53
5 Linero 26 50 42 +8 44
6 Nosaby 26 48 40 +8 45
7 Österlen 26 42 42 0 33
8 Staffanstorp United 26 42 42 0 32
9 Sölvesborg 26 42 47 -5 32
10 Lilla Torg 26 39 43 -4 32
11 Växjö Norra 26 36 37 -1 38
12 Torns 26 31 77 -46 21
13 Karlshamn 26 27 67 -40 14
14 Räppe 26 26 59 -33 18