The model missed the final outcome (Torns win 2–0).
The model had projected Staffanstorp United at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Staffanstorp United Torns ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torns | 31.5% | 36.2% | -4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 23.4% | +6.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Staffanstorp United | 39.0% | 40.4% | -1.4 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 6.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Torns win 2–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Staffanstorp United; match finished Torns
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Staffanstorp United by 6.2 percentage points (32.8% vs model 39.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Torns 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Staffanstorp United 39.0%
- xG · Torns 1.22 — Staffanstorp United 1.38
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Torns 2.40 · Draw 3.72 · Staffanstorp United 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Torns 36.2% · Draw 23.4% · Staffanstorp United 40.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Torns 2.40 · Draw 3.72 · Staffanstorp United 2.15
- Implied 1X2 · Torns 36.2% · Draw 23.4% · Staffanstorp United 40.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 03, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Torns win · 2–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 23 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 57 |
| 2 | IFK Trelleborg | 23 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 47 |
| 3 | Oskarshamns AIK | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 42 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 35 |
| 7 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 35 |
| 8 | Österlen | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 27 |
| 10 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 25 |
| 11 | Staffanstorp United | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Torns | 22 | 7 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 23 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karlskrona | 23 | 61 | 20 | +41 | 57 |
| 2 | Oskarshamns AIK | 23 | 58 | 30 | +28 | 42 |
| 3 | IFK Trelleborg | 23 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 47 |
| 4 | Berga | 22 | 47 | 33 | +14 | 37 |
| 5 | Nosaby | 23 | 42 | 37 | +5 | 36 |
| 6 | Linero | 22 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 35 |
| 7 | Österlen | 22 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Staffanstorp United | 23 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 23 |
| 9 | Sölvesborg | 22 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 25 |
| 10 | Växjö Norra | 23 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 35 |
| 11 | Torns | 22 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 21 |
| 12 | Lilla Torg | 22 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 27 |
| 13 | Räppe | 23 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 18 |
| 14 | Karlshamn | 23 | 24 | 60 | -36 | 11 |
