Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland / Karlshamn vs Räppe

Prediction Audit: Karlshamn vs Räppe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karlshamn Karlshamn
Jul 31, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.34
2 1.26
xG Accuracy: 68%
Räppe Räppe

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Karlshamn at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Karlshamn Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Karlshamn -3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karlshamn 37.1% 40.6% -3.5 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.9% +2.8 pp Aligned
Räppe 33.3% 32.6% +0.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Karlshamn; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karlshamn 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Räppe 33.4%
    • xG · Karlshamn 1.34 — Räppe 1.26
  2. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karlshamn 2.19 · Draw 3.31 · Räppe 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlshamn 40.6% · Draw 26.9% · Räppe 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 31, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Karlshamn 2.19 · Draw 3.31 · Räppe 2.73
    • Implied 1X2 · Karlshamn 40.6% · Draw 26.9% · Räppe 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 31, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:18 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1673588

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Karlshamn 2–2 Räppe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Södra Götaland
  • Fixture: Karlshamn vs Räppe
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Karlshamn 1.34 — Räppe 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 20, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Södra Götaland Division 2 - Södra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 17 3 2 54
2 Oskarshamns AIK 22 13 3 6 42
3 IFK Trelleborg 21 12 5 4 41
4 Berga 22 11 4 7 37
5 Linero 22 11 2 9 35
6 Växjö Norra 21 9 6 6 33
7 Nosaby 21 9 5 7 32
8 Österlen 22 8 5 9 29
9 Lilla Torg 22 6 9 7 27
10 Sölvesborg 21 8 1 12 25
11 Staffanstorp United 22 5 8 9 23
12 Torns 22 7 0 15 21
13 Räppe 22 4 5 13 17
14 Karlshamn 22 3 2 17 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Karlskrona 22 57 19 +38 54
2 Oskarshamns AIK 22 55 26 +29 42
3 Berga 22 47 33 +14 37
4 IFK Trelleborg 21 41 19 +22 41
5 Nosaby 21 39 37 +2 32
6 Linero 22 39 38 +1 35
7 Österlen 22 34 35 -1 29
8 Staffanstorp United 22 33 38 -5 23
9 Sölvesborg 21 31 36 -5 25
10 Växjö Norra 21 30 30 0 33
11 Torns 22 30 59 -29 21
12 Lilla Torg 22 28 35 -7 27
13 Räppe 22 24 50 -26 17
14 Karlshamn 22 23 56 -33 11
Division 2 - Södra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Södra Götaland Predictions