Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Viggbyholms IK vs Helges

Prediction Audit: Viggbyholms IK vs Helges Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Viggbyholms IK Viggbyholms IK
Sep 20, 2026 - 11:00
4 1.29
2 1.31
xG Accuracy: 39%
⚽
Helges

The model missed the final outcome (Viggbyholms IK win 4–2).

The model had projected Helges at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Helges Viggbyholms IK ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Viggbyholms IK higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Viggbyholms IK -15.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Viggbyholms IK 34.7% 50.4% -15.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 21.1% +8.5 pp Model Higher
Helges 35.6% 28.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Viggbyholms IK's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Viggbyholms IK win 4–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Viggbyholms IK than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Helges by 15.7 percentage points (51.3% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Helges 35.6%
    • xG · Viggbyholms IK 1.29 — Helges 1.31
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Viggbyholms IK 1.75 · Draw 4.17 · Helges 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 50.4% · Draw 21.1% · Helges 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Viggbyholms IK 1.75 · Draw 4.17 · Helges 3.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 50.4% · Draw 21.1% · Helges 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Viggbyholms IK win · 4–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8662629

Closing Odds 1.75
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Viggbyholms IK win · Viggbyholms IK 4–2 Helges
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Viggbyholms IK vs Helges
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Viggbyholms IK 1.29 — Helges 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 36.1% · Probability edge: +15.7 pts · Est. EV: +32.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions