Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Viggbyholms IK vs Falu BS

Prediction Audit: Viggbyholms IK vs Falu BS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Viggbyholms IK Viggbyholms IK
Sep 06, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.20
2 1.40
xG Accuracy: 61%
Falu BS Falu BS

AI correctly predicted the Falu BS win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Falu BS Falu BS ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Falu BS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Falu BS -12.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Viggbyholms IK 30.6% 22.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.5% 25.2% +4.3 pp Aligned
Falu BS 39.9% 51.9% -12.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Falu BS's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Falu BS win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Falu BS than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Falu BS higher (51.9% vs model 39.9%, 12.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Falu BS win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Falu BS 40.0%
    • xG · Viggbyholms IK 1.20 — Falu BS 1.40
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Viggbyholms IK 3.88 · Draw 3.53 · Falu BS 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 22.9% · Draw 25.2% · Falu BS 51.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Viggbyholms IK 3.88 · Draw 3.53 · Falu BS 1.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Viggbyholms IK 22.9% · Draw 25.2% · Falu BS 51.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Falu BS win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 40/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6360802

Closing Odds 1.71
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Falu BS win · Viggbyholms IK 0–2 Falu BS
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Viggbyholms IK vs Falu BS
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Away 40.0%
  • xG (showing): Viggbyholms IK 1.2 — Falu BS 1.4 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +8.2 pts · Est. EV: +14.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions