The model missed the final outcome (Skiljebo win 4–2).
The model had projected Helges at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Helges Skiljebo ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skiljebo | 32.9% | 79.5% | -46.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 12.1% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Helges | 37.5% | 8.4% | +29.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Skiljebo's win probability at 79.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 46.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Skiljebo win 4–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Helges; match finished Skiljebo
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Helges by 46.6 percentage points (84.2% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Skiljebo 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Helges 37.6%
- xG · Skiljebo 1.25 — Helges 1.35
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 10:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Skiljebo 1.12 · Draw 7.38 · Helges 10.55
- Implied 1X2 · Skiljebo 79.5% · Draw 12.1% · Helges 8.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Skiljebo 1.12 · Draw 7.38 · Helges 10.55
- Implied 1X2 · Skiljebo 79.5% · Draw 12.1% · Helges 8.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Skiljebo win · 4–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (47 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 2 | Sunnersta | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 4 | Enskede | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 6 | Täby | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Gute | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 28 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 12 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 14 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunnersta | 23 | 57 | 19 | +38 | 50 |
| 2 | Skiljebo | 23 | 54 | 24 | +30 | 53 |
| 3 | Angby | 22 | 46 | 25 | +21 | 45 |
| 4 | Täby | 23 | 39 | 25 | +14 | 38 |
| 5 | Bollstanäs | 22 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 28 |
| 6 | Gute | 23 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 32 |
| 7 | Enskede | 22 | 36 | 23 | +13 | 43 |
| 8 | Falu BS | 22 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 41 |
| 9 | Franke | 22 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidingö | 23 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 20 |
| 11 | Kungsängen | 22 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 19 |
| 12 | Korsnäs | 23 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 14 |
| 13 | Viggbyholms IK | 23 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 19 |
| 14 | Helges | 23 | 20 | 57 | -37 | 10 |
