Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Gute vs Bollstanäs

Prediction Audit: Gute vs Bollstanäs Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gute Gute
Aug 15, 2026 - 16:00
2 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 52%
Bollstanäs Bollstanäs

AI correctly predicted the Bollstanäs win.

The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Bollstanäs Bollstanäs ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Gute higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gute -8.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gute 32.9% 41.0% -8.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Bollstanäs 37.5% 34.6% +3.0 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Gute's win probability at 41.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bollstanäs win 2–3).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Gute. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bollstanäs higher (45.7% vs model 37.5%, 8.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bollstanäs win 2–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gute 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Bollstanäs 37.6%
    • xG · Gute 1.25 — Bollstanäs 1.35
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gute 2.19 · Draw 3.68 · Bollstanäs 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Gute 41.0% · Draw 24.4% · Bollstanäs 34.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Gute 2.19 · Draw 3.68 · Bollstanäs 2.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Gute 41.0% · Draw 24.4% · Bollstanäs 34.6%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bollstanäs win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3362032

Closing Odds 2.19
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bollstanäs win · Gute 2–3 Bollstanäs
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Gute vs Bollstanäs
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Gute 1.25 — Bollstanäs 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming Division 2 - Norra Svealand Matches Track Gute Next Match Prediction Track Bollstanäs Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions