Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Helges vs Bollstanäs

Prediction Audit: Helges vs Bollstanäs Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

⚽
Helges
Aug 09, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.28
5 1.32
xG Accuracy: 26%
Bollstanäs Bollstanäs

AI correctly predicted the Bollstanäs win.

The match finished 0–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bollstanäs Bollstanäs ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Bollstanäs higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Bollstanäs -19.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Helges 34.2% 22.9% +11.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.9% +7.7 pp Model Higher
Bollstanäs 36.1% 55.1% -19.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Bollstanäs's win probability at 55.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 19.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Bollstanäs win 0–5).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Bollstanäs than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bollstanäs higher (55.1% vs model 36.1%, 19.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bollstanäs win 0–5).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Helges 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Bollstanäs 36.1%
    • xG · Helges 1.28 — Bollstanäs 1.32
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Helges 3.92 · Draw 4.10 · Bollstanäs 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Helges 22.9% · Draw 21.9% · Bollstanäs 55.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Helges 3.92 · Draw 4.10 · Bollstanäs 1.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Helges 22.9% · Draw 21.9% · Bollstanäs 55.1%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bollstanäs win · 0–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2964105

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bollstanäs win · Helges 0–5 Bollstanäs
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Helges vs Bollstanäs
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Helges 1.28 — Bollstanäs 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 23 16 5 2 53
2 Sunnersta 23 15 5 3 50
3 Angby 22 13 6 3 45
4 Enskede 22 13 4 5 43
5 Falu BS 22 12 5 5 41
6 Täby 23 11 5 7 38
7 Gute 23 9 5 9 32
8 Bollstanäs 22 7 7 8 28
9 Franke 22 7 4 11 25
10 Lidingö 23 5 5 13 20
11 Kungsängen 22 3 10 9 19
12 Viggbyholms IK 23 5 4 14 19
13 Korsnäs 23 3 5 15 14
14 Helges 23 2 4 17 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 23 57 19 +38 50
2 Skiljebo 23 54 24 +30 53
3 Angby 22 46 25 +21 45
4 Täby 23 39 25 +14 38
5 Bollstanäs 22 38 42 -4 28
6 Gute 23 37 33 +4 32
7 Enskede 22 36 23 +13 43
8 Falu BS 22 35 25 +10 41
9 Franke 22 35 39 -4 25
10 Lidingö 23 26 48 -22 20
11 Kungsängen 22 24 34 -10 19
12 Korsnäs 23 24 54 -30 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 23 23 46 -23 19
14 Helges 23 20 57 -37 10
Division 2 - Norra Svealand Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand Predictions