Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Svealand / Täby vs Helges

Prediction Audit: Täby vs Helges Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Täby Täby
Jun 21, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.35
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 45%
⚽
Helges

AI correctly predicted the Täby win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Täby Täby ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Täby win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 21, 2026 · 20:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Täby 1.35 — Helges 1.25
  2. Jun 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Täby win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 05:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1681119

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Täby win · Täby 3–0 Helges
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Svealand
  • Fixture: Täby vs Helges
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-21 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): Täby 1.35 — Helges 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 17, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Svealand Division 2 - Norra Svealand — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Skiljebo 25 17 5 3 56
2 Sunnersta 25 16 5 4 53
3 Enskede 25 16 4 5 52
4 Angby 25 15 6 4 51
5 Falu BS 25 13 5 7 44
6 Täby 25 12 5 8 41
7 Franke 25 10 4 11 34
8 Gute 25 9 5 11 32
9 Bollstanäs 25 8 7 10 31
10 Kungsängen 25 5 10 10 25
11 Lidingö 25 6 5 14 23
12 Viggbyholms IK 25 6 4 15 22
13 Korsnäs 25 3 5 17 14
14 Helges 25 2 4 19 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sunnersta 25 65 22 +43 53
2 Angby 25 58 29 +29 51
3 Skiljebo 25 56 26 +30 56
4 Franke 25 45 43 +2 34
5 Bollstanäs 25 45 48 -3 31
6 Täby 25 44 28 +16 41
7 Enskede 25 42 24 +18 52
8 Falu BS 25 40 30 +10 44
9 Gute 25 38 38 0 32
10 Kungsängen 25 30 39 -9 25
11 Lidingö 25 29 54 -25 23
12 Korsnäs 25 26 64 -38 14
13 Viggbyholms IK 25 25 49 -24 22
14 Helges 25 22 71 -49 10