Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors

Prediction Audit: Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vänersborgs IF Vänersborgs IF
Sep 25, 2026 - 17:15
1 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 77%
Ahlafors Ahlafors

AI correctly predicted the Ahlafors win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ahlafors Ahlafors ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ahlafors higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ahlafors -25.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vänersborgs IF 34.2% 17.6% +16.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 20.4% +9.3 pp Model Higher
Ahlafors 36.1% 62.1% -25.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Ahlafors's win probability at 62.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 25.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ahlafors win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ahlafors higher (62.0% vs model 36.1%, 25.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ahlafors win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vänersborgs IF 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Ahlafors 36.1%
    • xG · Vänersborgs IF 1.28 — Ahlafors 1.32
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs IF 5.01 · Draw 4.33 · Ahlafors 1.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs IF 17.6% · Draw 20.4% · Ahlafors 62.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs IF 5.01 · Draw 4.33 · Ahlafors 1.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs IF 17.6% · Draw 20.4% · Ahlafors 62.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ahlafors win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9571408

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ahlafors win · Vänersborgs IF 1–2 Ahlafors
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Vänersborgs IF vs Ahlafors
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 17:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Vänersborgs IF 1.28 — Ahlafors 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 19 3 1 60
2 Skara 23 15 5 3 50
3 IFK Skövde 22 12 5 5 41
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 22 9 7 6 34
7 Stenungsund 22 8 6 8 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 8 4 11 28
9 Kumla 23 6 7 10 25
10 Lidköping 23 6 6 11 24
11 Motala 22 5 8 9 23
12 Tord 22 3 9 10 18
13 IF Karlstad II 22 2 7 13 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 54 18 +36 60
2 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
3 Skara 23 48 25 +23 50
4 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
5 Herrestads 22 41 38 +3 34
6 IFK Skövde 22 38 25 +13 41
7 Stenungsund 22 38 29 +9 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 30 39 -9 28
9 Motala 22 29 32 -3 23
10 Lidköping 23 28 42 -14 24
11 Tord 22 25 37 -12 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 23 24 65 -41 9
13 IF Karlstad II 22 23 43 -20 13
14 Kumla 23 22 39 -17 25
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions