Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Vänersborgs FK vs Husqvarna

Prediction Audit: Vänersborgs FK vs Husqvarna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK
Sep 26, 2026 - 11:00
1 1.26
3 1.34
xG Accuracy: 59%
Husqvarna Husqvarna

AI correctly predicted the Husqvarna win.

The match finished 1–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Husqvarna Husqvarna ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Husqvarna higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Husqvarna -22.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vänersborgs FK 33.3% 17.8% +15.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 22.7% +6.9 pp Model Higher
Husqvarna 37.1% 59.4% -22.4 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Husqvarna's win probability at 59.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 22.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Husqvarna win 1–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Husqvarna higher (59.5% vs model 37.1%, 22.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Husqvarna win 1–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Husqvarna 37.0%
    • xG · Vänersborgs FK 1.26 — Husqvarna 1.34
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs FK 5.00 · Draw 3.92 · Husqvarna 1.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 17.8% · Draw 22.7% · Husqvarna 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs FK 5.00 · Draw 3.92 · Husqvarna 1.50
    • Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 17.8% · Draw 22.7% · Husqvarna 59.4%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Husqvarna win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10079822

Closing Odds 1.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Husqvarna win · Vänersborgs FK 1–3 Husqvarna
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Vänersborgs FK vs Husqvarna
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Vänersborgs FK 1.26 — Husqvarna 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 19 3 1 60
2 Skara 23 15 5 3 50
3 IFK Skövde 22 12 5 5 41
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 22 9 7 6 34
7 Stenungsund 22 8 6 8 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 8 4 11 28
9 Kumla 23 6 7 10 25
10 Lidköping 23 6 6 11 24
11 Motala 22 5 8 9 23
12 Tord 22 3 9 10 18
13 IF Karlstad II 22 2 7 13 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 54 18 +36 60
2 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
3 Skara 23 48 25 +23 50
4 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
5 Herrestads 22 41 38 +3 34
6 IFK Skövde 22 38 25 +13 41
7 Stenungsund 22 38 29 +9 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 30 39 -9 28
9 Motala 22 29 32 -3 23
10 Lidköping 23 28 42 -14 24
11 Tord 22 25 37 -12 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 23 24 65 -41 9
13 IF Karlstad II 22 23 43 -20 13
14 Kumla 23 22 39 -17 25
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions