Predictions / Football / Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK

Prediction Audit: Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stenungsund Stenungsund
Sep 11, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.28
1 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK

AI correctly predicted the Vänersborgs FK win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Vänersborgs FK Vänersborgs FK ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Stenungsund higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Stenungsund -17.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stenungsund 34.2% 51.9% -17.7 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.8% +5.9 pp Model Higher
Vänersborgs FK 36.1% 24.3% +11.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Stenungsund's win probability at 51.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 17.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Vänersborgs FK win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Stenungsund than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Vänersborgs FK higher (53.8% vs model 36.1%, 17.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Vänersborgs FK win 0–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stenungsund 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Vänersborgs FK 36.1%
    • xG · Stenungsund 1.28 — Vänersborgs FK 1.32
  2. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stenungsund 1.76 · Draw 3.74 · Vänersborgs FK 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Stenungsund 51.0% · Draw 24.0% · Vänersborgs FK 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Sep 11, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stenungsund 1.73 · Draw 3.78 · Vänersborgs FK 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Stenungsund 51.9% · Draw 23.8% · Vänersborgs FK 24.3%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Sep 11, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Vänersborgs FK win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 05, 2026 · 01:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7032441

Closing Odds 1.73
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Vänersborgs FK win · Stenungsund 0–1 Vänersborgs FK
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
  • Fixture: Stenungsund vs Vänersborgs FK
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-11 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Stenungsund 1.28 — Vänersborgs FK 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 35.2% · Probability edge: +16.6 pts · Est. EV: +39.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 19 3 1 60
2 Skara 23 15 5 3 50
3 IFK Skövde 22 12 5 5 41
4 Ahlafors 23 11 7 5 40
5 Grebbestad 23 12 3 8 39
6 Herrestads 22 9 7 6 34
7 Stenungsund 22 8 6 8 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 8 4 11 28
9 Kumla 23 6 7 10 25
10 Lidköping 23 6 6 11 24
11 Motala 22 5 8 9 23
12 Tord 22 3 9 10 18
13 IF Karlstad II 22 2 7 13 13
14 Vänersborgs IF 23 2 3 18 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Husqvarna 23 54 18 +36 60
2 Ahlafors 23 49 26 +23 40
3 Skara 23 48 25 +23 50
4 Grebbestad 23 42 33 +9 39
5 Herrestads 22 41 38 +3 34
6 IFK Skövde 22 38 25 +13 41
7 Stenungsund 22 38 29 +9 30
8 Vänersborgs FK 23 30 39 -9 28
9 Motala 22 29 32 -3 23
10 Lidköping 23 28 42 -14 24
11 Tord 22 25 37 -12 18
12 Vänersborgs IF 23 24 65 -41 9
13 IF Karlstad II 22 23 43 -20 13
14 Kumla 23 22 39 -17 25
Division 2 - Norra Götaland Sweden. Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions