The model missed the final outcome (Husqvarna win 0–1).
The model had projected Motala at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Motala Husqvarna ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motala | 39.5% | 24.9% | +14.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 24.9% | +4.6 pp | Aligned |
| Husqvarna | 31.0% | 50.2% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Husqvarna's win probability at 50.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Husqvarna win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Husqvarna than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Motala; match finished Husqvarna
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Motala by 19.1 percentage points (58.6% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Motala 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Husqvarna 31.0%
- xG · Motala 1.39 — Husqvarna 1.21
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Motala 3.57 · Draw 3.56 · Husqvarna 1.77
- Implied 1X2 · Motala 24.9% · Draw 24.9% · Husqvarna 50.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Motala 3.57 · Draw 3.56 · Husqvarna 1.77
- Implied 1X2 · Motala 24.9% · Draw 24.9% · Husqvarna 50.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Husqvarna win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 60 |
| 2 | Skara | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 6 | Herrestads | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 9 | Kumla | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Motala | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 12 | Tord | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 54 | 18 | +36 | 60 |
| 2 | Ahlafors | 23 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 40 |
| 3 | Skara | 23 | 48 | 25 | +23 | 50 |
| 4 | Grebbestad | 23 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 39 |
| 5 | Herrestads | 22 | 41 | 38 | +3 | 34 |
| 6 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 41 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 28 |
| 9 | Motala | 22 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 24 |
| 11 | Tord | 22 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 18 |
| 12 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 24 | 65 | -41 | 9 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 13 |
| 14 | Kumla | 23 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
