Prediction Audit: Vänersborgs FK vs Herrestads Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vänersborgs FK

Jul 31, 2026 - 17:15

2 1.15

4 1.45

xG Accuracy: 39%

Herrestads

AI correctly predicted the Herrestads win.

The match finished 2–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Herrestads Herrestads ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Vänersborgs FK	28.4%	36.6%	-8.3 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.3%	27.7%	+1.5 pp	Aligned
Herrestads	42.4%	35.6%	+6.8 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Vänersborgs FK's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.4%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Herrestads win 2–4).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Vänersborgs FK. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Herrestads higher (50.7% vs model 42.4%, 8.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Herrestads win 2–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 31, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Herrestads 42.4%
- xG · Vänersborgs FK 1.15 — Herrestads 1.45
Jul 31, 2026 · 16:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs FK 2.43 · Draw 3.21 · Herrestads 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 36.6% · Draw 27.7% · Herrestads 35.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Vänersborgs FK 2.43 · Draw 3.21 · Herrestads 2.50
- Implied 1X2 · Vänersborgs FK 36.6% · Draw 27.7% · Herrestads 35.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 31, 2026 · 17:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Herrestads win · 2–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 03:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1675166

Closing Odds 2.43

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Herrestads win · Vänersborgs FK 2–4 Herrestads

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Fixture: Vänersborgs FK vs Herrestads
Kickoff: 2026-07-31 17:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
xG (showing): Vänersborgs FK 1.15 — Herrestads 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	19	3	1	60
2	Skara	23	15	5	3	50
3	IFK Skövde	22	12	5	5	41
4	Ahlafors	23	11	7	5	40
5	Grebbestad	23	12	3	8	39
6	Herrestads	22	9	7	6	34
7	Stenungsund	22	8	6	8	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	8	4	11	28
9	Kumla	23	6	7	10	25
10	Lidköping	23	6	6	11	24
11	Motala	22	5	8	9	23
12	Tord	22	3	9	10	18
13	IF Karlstad II	22	2	7	13	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	54	18	+36	60
2	Ahlafors	23	49	26	+23	40
3	Skara	23	48	25	+23	50
4	Grebbestad	23	42	33	+9	39
5	Herrestads	22	41	38	+3	34
6	IFK Skövde	22	38	25	+13	41
7	Stenungsund	22	38	29	+9	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	30	39	-9	28
9	Motala	22	29	32	-3	23
10	Lidköping	23	28	42	-14	24
11	Tord	22	25	37	-12	18
12	Vänersborgs IF	23	24	65	-41	9
13	IF Karlstad II	22	23	43	-20	13
14	Kumla	23	22	39	-17	25