The model missed the final outcome (Lidköping win 1–2).
The model had projected IFK Skövde at 48.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 IFK Skövde Lidköping ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFK Skövde | 48.7% | 67.8% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 26.8% | 18.5% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Lidköping | 24.5% | 13.7% | +10.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates IFK Skövde's win probability at 67.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 48.7%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Lidköping win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about IFK Skövde than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned IFK Skövde; match finished Lidköping
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on IFK Skövde by 19.1 percentage points (67.8% vs model 48.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 25, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · IFK Skövde 48.6% · Draw 26.9% · Lidköping 24.5%
- xG · IFK Skövde 1.40 — Lidköping 1.20
-
Jun 25, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · IFK Skövde 1.31 · Draw 4.80 · Lidköping 6.47
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Skövde 67.8% · Draw 18.5% · Lidköping 13.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 25, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · IFK Skövde 1.31 · Draw 4.80 · Lidköping 6.47
- Implied 1X2 · IFK Skövde 67.8% · Draw 18.5% · Lidköping 13.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 25, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lidköping win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 60 |
| 2 | Skara | 23 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 50 |
| 3 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Ahlafors | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 40 |
| 5 | Grebbestad | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 |
| 6 | Herrestads | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 34 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 8 | 4 | 11 | 28 |
| 9 | Kumla | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Motala | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 23 |
| 12 | Tord | 22 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 18 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 13 |
| 14 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Husqvarna | 23 | 54 | 18 | +36 | 60 |
| 2 | Ahlafors | 23 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 40 |
| 3 | Skara | 23 | 48 | 25 | +23 | 50 |
| 4 | Grebbestad | 23 | 42 | 33 | +9 | 39 |
| 5 | Herrestads | 22 | 41 | 38 | +3 | 34 |
| 6 | IFK Skövde | 22 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 41 |
| 7 | Stenungsund | 22 | 38 | 29 | +9 | 30 |
| 8 | Vänersborgs FK | 23 | 30 | 39 | -9 | 28 |
| 9 | Motala | 22 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 23 |
| 10 | Lidköping | 23 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 24 |
| 11 | Tord | 22 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 18 |
| 12 | Vänersborgs IF | 23 | 24 | 65 | -41 | 9 |
| 13 | IF Karlstad II | 22 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 13 |
| 14 | Kumla | 23 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
