Prediction Audit: Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs IF Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Grebbestad

Jun 18, 2026 - 17:00

4 1.31

3 1.29

xG Accuracy: 30%

Vänersborgs IF

AI correctly predicted the Grebbestad win.

The match finished 4–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Grebbestad Grebbestad ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Grebbestad	35.6%	54.8%	-19.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.8%	+5.9 pp	Model Higher
Vänersborgs IF	34.7%	21.4%	+13.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Grebbestad's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 19.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Grebbestad win 4–3).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Grebbestad than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Grebbestad higher (54.8% vs model 35.6%, 19.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Grebbestad win 4–3).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jun 18, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Grebbestad 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Vänersborgs IF 34.7%
- xG · Grebbestad 1.31 — Vänersborgs IF 1.29
Jun 18, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Grebbestad 1.64 · Draw 3.78 · Vänersborgs IF 4.20
- Implied 1X2 · Grebbestad 54.8% · Draw 23.8% · Vänersborgs IF 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Grebbestad 1.64 · Draw 3.78 · Vänersborgs IF 4.20
- Implied 1X2 · Grebbestad 54.8% · Draw 23.8% · Vänersborgs IF 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
Jun 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Grebbestad win · 4–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (19 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 4/100

Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 17:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3455875

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Grebbestad win · Grebbestad 4–3 Vänersborgs IF

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Division 2 - Norra Götaland
Fixture: Grebbestad vs Vänersborgs IF
Kickoff: 2026-06-18 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Grebbestad 1.31 — Vänersborgs IF 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 2 - Norra Götaland — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	19	3	1	60
2	Skara	23	15	5	3	50
3	IFK Skövde	22	12	5	5	41
4	Ahlafors	23	11	7	5	40
5	Grebbestad	23	12	3	8	39
6	Herrestads	22	9	7	6	34
7	Stenungsund	22	8	6	8	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	8	4	11	28
9	Kumla	23	6	7	10	25
10	Lidköping	23	6	6	11	24
11	Motala	22	5	8	9	23
12	Tord	22	3	9	10	18
13	IF Karlstad II	22	2	7	13	13
14	Vänersborgs IF	23	2	3	18	9

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Husqvarna	23	54	18	+36	60
2	Ahlafors	23	49	26	+23	40
3	Skara	23	48	25	+23	50
4	Grebbestad	23	42	33	+9	39
5	Herrestads	22	41	38	+3	34
6	IFK Skövde	22	38	25	+13	41
7	Stenungsund	22	38	29	+9	30
8	Vänersborgs FK	23	30	39	-9	28
9	Motala	22	29	32	-3	23
10	Lidköping	23	28	42	-14	24
11	Tord	22	25	37	-12	18
12	Vänersborgs IF	23	24	65	-41	9
13	IF Karlstad II	22	23	43	-20	13
14	Kumla	23	22	39	-17	25