Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Ansan Greeners vs Cheongju

Prediction Audit: Ansan Greeners vs Cheongju Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ansan Greeners Ansan Greeners
Sep 20, 2026 - 07:30
2 1.30
3 1.30
xG Accuracy: 52%
Cheongju Cheongju

The model missed the final outcome (Cheongju win 2–3).

The model had projected Ansan Greeners at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ansan Greeners Cheongju ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Cheongju higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cheongju -12.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ansan Greeners 35.2% 24.1% +11.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 28.0% +1.6 pp Aligned
Cheongju 35.2% 47.9% -12.7 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Cheongju's win probability at 47.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 12.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cheongju win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Cheongju than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Ansan Greeners; match finished Cheongju
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ansan Greeners by 12.7 percentage points (47.9% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ansan Greeners 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Cheongju 35.2%
    • xG · Ansan Greeners 1.30 — Cheongju 1.30
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ansan Greeners 3.95 · Draw 3.40 · Cheongju 1.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Ansan Greeners 24.1% · Draw 28.0% · Cheongju 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ansan Greeners 3.95 · Draw 3.40 · Cheongju 1.99
    • Implied 1X2 · Ansan Greeners 24.1% · Draw 28.0% · Cheongju 47.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cheongju win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8657181

Closing Odds 1.99
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cheongju win · Ansan Greeners 2–3 Cheongju
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Ansan Greeners vs Cheongju
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 07:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Ansan Greeners 1.3 — Cheongju 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Ansan Greeners
  • Model: 35.2% · Implied: 24.1% · Probability edge: +11.1 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13