Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Jeonnam Dragons vs Suwon City FC

Prediction Audit: Jeonnam Dragons vs Suwon City FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jeonnam Dragons Jeonnam Dragons
Sep 19, 2026 - 07:30
0 1.34
3 1.26
xG Accuracy: 43%
Suwon City FC Suwon City FC

The model missed the final outcome (Suwon City FC win 0–3).

The model had projected Jeonnam Dragons at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jeonnam Dragons Suwon City FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Suwon City FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Suwon City FC -16.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jeonnam Dragons 37.1% 25.5% +11.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.3 pp Model Higher
Suwon City FC 33.3% 50.1% -16.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Suwon City FC's win probability at 50.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 16.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Suwon City FC win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Suwon City FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Jeonnam Dragons; match finished Suwon City FC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Jeonnam Dragons by 16.8 percentage points (53.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jeonnam Dragons 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Suwon City FC 33.4%
    • xG · Jeonnam Dragons 1.34 — Suwon City FC 1.26
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jeonnam Dragons 3.73 · Draw 3.91 · Suwon City FC 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeonnam Dragons 25.5% · Draw 24.4% · Suwon City FC 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jeonnam Dragons 3.73 · Draw 3.91 · Suwon City FC 1.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Jeonnam Dragons 25.5% · Draw 24.4% · Suwon City FC 50.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Suwon City FC win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654352

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Suwon City FC win · Jeonnam Dragons 0–3 Suwon City FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Jeonnam Dragons vs Suwon City FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 07:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Jeonnam Dragons 1.34 — Suwon City FC 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.8% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13