Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Asan Mugunghwa vs Cheonan City

Prediction Audit: Asan Mugunghwa vs Cheonan City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa
Sep 19, 2026 - 07:30
3 1.43
1 1.17
xG Accuracy: 62%
Cheonan City Cheonan City

AI correctly predicted the Asan Mugunghwa win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Asan Mugunghwa -4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Asan Mugunghwa 41.4% 45.8% -4.4 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 27.6% +1.8 pp Aligned
Cheonan City 29.2% 26.6% +2.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Asan Mugunghwa win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Asan Mugunghwa win 3–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Asan Mugunghwa 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Cheonan City 29.3%
    • xG · Asan Mugunghwa 1.43 — Cheonan City 1.17
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Asan Mugunghwa 2.08 · Draw 3.45 · Cheonan City 3.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Asan Mugunghwa 45.8% · Draw 27.6% · Cheonan City 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Asan Mugunghwa 2.08 · Draw 3.45 · Cheonan City 3.58
    • Implied 1X2 · Asan Mugunghwa 45.8% · Draw 27.6% · Cheonan City 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Asan Mugunghwa win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 78/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 00:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8654350

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Asan Mugunghwa win · Asan Mugunghwa 3–1 Cheonan City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Asan Mugunghwa vs Cheonan City
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 07:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Asan Mugunghwa 1.43 — Cheonan City 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +4.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13