Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Gyeongnam FC vs Seongnam FC

Prediction Audit: Gyeongnam FC vs Seongnam FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gyeongnam FC Gyeongnam FC
Sep 13, 2026 - 07:30
1 1.14
0 1.46
xG Accuracy: 64%
Seongnam FC Seongnam FC

The model missed the final outcome (Gyeongnam FC win 1–0).

The model had projected Seongnam FC at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Seongnam FC Gyeongnam FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Seongnam FC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Seongnam FC +6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gyeongnam FC 27.9% 33.0% -5.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.2% 30.4% -1.2 pp Aligned
Seongnam FC 42.9% 36.6% +6.3 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Seongnam FC's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.6%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gyeongnam FC win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Seongnam FC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Seongnam FC by 6.3 percentage points (36.6% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Seongnam FC 42.9%
    • xG · Gyeongnam FC 1.14 — Seongnam FC 1.46
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongnam FC 2.89 · Draw 3.14 · Seongnam FC 2.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 33.0% · Draw 30.4% · Seongnam FC 36.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gyeongnam FC 2.89 · Draw 3.14 · Seongnam FC 2.61
    • Implied 1X2 · Gyeongnam FC 33.0% · Draw 30.4% · Seongnam FC 36.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gyeongnam FC win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7419754

Closing Odds 2.61
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gyeongnam FC win · Gyeongnam FC 1–0 Seongnam FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Gyeongnam FC vs Seongnam FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 07:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.9% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.9%
  • xG (showing): Gyeongnam FC 1.14 — Seongnam FC 1.46 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 44.4% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.8% · No 46.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13