Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Suwon City FC vs Gimhae City

Prediction Audit: Suwon City FC vs Gimhae City Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Suwon City FC Suwon City FC
Aug 22, 2026 - 10:30
2 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 58%
Gimhae City Gimhae City

AI correctly predicted the Suwon City FC win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Suwon City FC Suwon City FC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Suwon City FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Suwon City FC -27.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Suwon City FC 36.1% 63.7% -27.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 19.9% +9.7 pp Model Higher
Gimhae City 34.2% 16.4% +17.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Suwon City FC's win probability at 63.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 27.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Suwon City FC win 2–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Suwon City FC higher (63.7% vs model 36.1%, 27.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Suwon City FC win 2–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Suwon City FC 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Gimhae City 34.2%
    • xG · Suwon City FC 1.32 — Gimhae City 1.28
  2. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Suwon City FC 1.49 · Draw 4.76 · Gimhae City 5.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Suwon City FC 63.7% · Draw 19.9% · Gimhae City 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Suwon City FC 1.49 · Draw 4.76 · Gimhae City 5.79
    • Implied 1X2 · Suwon City FC 63.7% · Draw 19.9% · Gimhae City 16.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 22, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Suwon City FC win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:12 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4214347

Closing Odds 1.49
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Suwon City FC win · Suwon City FC 2–0 Gimhae City
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gimhae City
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-22 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Suwon City FC 1.32 — Gimhae City 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming K League 2 Matches Track Suwon City FC Next Match Prediction Track Gimhae City Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Suwon City FC & Gimhae City!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13