Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa

Prediction Audit: Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Daegu FC Daegu FC
Aug 16, 2026 - 10:30
2 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 57%
Asan Mugunghwa Asan Mugunghwa

The model missed the final outcome (Daegu FC win 2–0).

The model had projected Asan Mugunghwa at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Asan Mugunghwa Daegu FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Daegu FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Daegu FC -15.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Daegu FC 33.8% 49.4% -15.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.1% +5.5 pp Model Higher
Asan Mugunghwa 36.6% 26.5% +10.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Daegu FC's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 15.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Daegu FC win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Daegu FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Asan Mugunghwa; match finished Daegu FC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Asan Mugunghwa by 15.6 percentage points (52.2% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Daegu FC 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Asan Mugunghwa 36.6%
    • xG · Daegu FC 1.27 — Asan Mugunghwa 1.33
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Daegu FC 1.93 · Draw 3.95 · Asan Mugunghwa 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Daegu FC 49.4% · Draw 24.1% · Asan Mugunghwa 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Daegu FC 1.93 · Draw 3.95 · Asan Mugunghwa 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Daegu FC 49.4% · Draw 24.1% · Asan Mugunghwa 26.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Daegu FC win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 7/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3600805

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Daegu FC win · Daegu FC 2–0 Asan Mugunghwa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Daegu FC vs Asan Mugunghwa
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Daegu FC 1.27 — Asan Mugunghwa 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13