Predictions / Football / South-Korea. K League 2 / Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC

Prediction Audit: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Daegu FC Daegu FC
Jul 25, 2026 - 10:30
1 2.04
2 1.29
xG Accuracy: 62%
Suwon City FC Suwon City FC

The model missed the final outcome (Suwon City FC win 1–2).

The model had projected Daegu FC at 52.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Daegu FC Suwon City FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Suwon City FC -4.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Daegu FC 52.4% 48.4% +4.0 pp Aligned
Draw 23.9% 23.3% +0.6 pp Aligned
Suwon City FC 23.7% 28.3% -4.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Suwon City FC win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.33) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Daegu FC; match finished Suwon City FC
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Suwon City FC win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 25, 2026 · 20:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Daegu FC 52.4% · Draw 23.9% · Suwon City FC 23.7%
    • xG · Daegu FC 2.04 — Suwon City FC 1.29
  2. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Daegu FC 1.97 · Draw 4.09 · Suwon City FC 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Daegu FC 48.4% · Draw 23.3% · Suwon City FC 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Daegu FC 1.97 · Draw 4.09 · Suwon City FC 3.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Daegu FC 48.4% · Draw 23.3% · Suwon City FC 28.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 25, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Suwon City FC win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 71/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (51%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 76/100
Betting Confidence 74/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453364

Closing Odds 3.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Suwon City FC win · Daegu FC 1–2 Suwon City FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: K League 2
  • Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-25 10:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Daegu FC 2.04 — Suwon City FC 1.29 (total xG ≈ 3.33)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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K League 2 K League 2 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Suwon Bluewings 25 16 5 4 53
2 Suwon City FC 25 13 9 3 48
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 14 6 6 48
4 Daegu FC 26 13 7 6 46
5 Hwaseong 26 12 8 6 44
6 Busan I Park 26 12 5 9 41
7 Gimpo Citizen 25 8 11 6 35
8 Asan Mugunghwa 25 9 7 9 34
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 8 10 7 34
10 Seongnam FC 25 7 10 8 31
11 Cheongju 26 5 14 7 29
12 Paju Citizen 25 8 5 12 29
13 Yongin City 25 5 12 8 27
14 Cheonan City 26 4 11 11 23
15 Ansan Greeners 26 6 4 16 22
16 Jeonnam Dragons 25 4 9 12 21
17 Gimhae City 25 2 7 16 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Suwon City FC 25 50 29 +21 48
2 Daegu FC 26 48 35 +13 46
3 Seoul E-Land FC 26 45 30 +15 48
4 Hwaseong 26 41 27 +14 44
5 Busan I Park 26 41 34 +7 41
6 Suwon Bluewings 25 39 20 +19 53
7 Asan Mugunghwa 25 34 31 +3 34
8 Gimpo Citizen 25 31 30 +1 35
9 Gyeongnam FC 25 31 30 +1 34
10 Yongin City 25 31 35 -4 27
11 Cheongju 26 31 41 -10 29
12 Cheonan City 26 30 37 -7 23
13 Seongnam FC 25 28 30 -2 31
14 Jeonnam Dragons 25 28 43 -15 21
15 Ansan Greeners 26 27 49 -22 22
16 Paju Citizen 25 24 28 -4 29
17 Gimhae City 25 19 49 -30 13